Investors talk with apprehension about “Black Swan” events – something so impossibly unlikely that the assumption is ‘it can’t possibly happen,”- until it does.
Most horseplayers and sports bettors have become hardened by experience to never completely discount any eventuality, no matter how preposterous it may seem.
We can all relate to leaving only a few horses off our tickets when spreading wide and getting blown out by a despised outsider. Or, soccer fans will see an overwhelmingly dominant team, based on possession stats and goal scoring opportunities, get done in by opposition who capitalize on their single shot on goal. Occasionally, an unheralded golfer may shoot lights out and suddenly win a Tour event, then slink back into obscurity again.
Such wide variation in results is to be expected in any highly competitive environment where there are so many variables influencing the outcome.
Ultimately, every wager is a risk vs reward balancing act with speculators asking themselves if the rewards justify the risk. Smart gamblers understand that randomness is a legitimate part of any game and try factor in even those rare, Black Swan occurrences. They diligently assess probability and price before wagering, and then only commit themselves when believing they have an advantage.
Fortunately, with sport and racing slowly opening up again around the world, Interbet punters can try put their best value- based opinions into practice whilst acknowledging that even with astute selections and canny wagering, luck will always play a role. A short head either way, a putt lipping out or a ball deflecting off the post – on such fine margins does the outcome swing.
Handling both the excitement and stress of betting then not going on tilt is a big psychological part of any gambling game. Maybe perceptive nobleman, La Rochefoucald was referring to the plight of luckless punters when writing, “We all have enough strength to bear the misfortune of others.” And, the gambling life is definitely not for the poor soul that droll musician, Victor Borge was describing, “Everything went right for him until the day he was born.”
Keeping things in perspective is important – for the vast majority, other than pro’s betting for a living, punting is only a recreational pastime to be enjoyed, after all. Where you need the Goddess of Fortune on your side is for the things that really matter!
So, the Interbet team are wishing all our clients good health, resilience at work and positive vibes in relationships through these trying times. And, when SA racing eventually resumes, may all the photo finishes go your way, as well!