There are myriads of ways for arriving at a selection in a horse race. For some, it may be as simple as choosing the best weighted runner, following the top jockey, or picking a course and distance specialist with good recent form. Others may utilize very detailed decision models, aided by computer power and complex algorithms which consider multiple variables that affect race outcomes before spitting out ranked selections and an accurate odds line.
If you think about it carefully – what are the most fundamental factors to be considered in a selection process to predict a horse racing result? In broad terms, I can think of three factors that are always vitally important for any horse race anywhere in the world:
- The fitness level and race- readiness of each runner.
- The peculiar circumstances of each race, including the distance over which its being held, likely pace, effect of the draw at the track, state of the going… etc.
- The natural ability or talent of each entry measured either by speed figures or classical weight/merit ratings.
These are not revolutionary insights – all experienced form studiers would agree these things matter most of the time. The tricky part is weighting these fundamental factors with precision, or at least consistently following a diligent process which helps narrow down the contention so that you can have confidence in your selection.
Many traditional handicappers believe that the critical fundamental is pure ability, and the most likely winner is the classiest, fastest thoroughbred in the field. Fair enough, but physical condition is important too for coping with the athletic demands of the race. To paraphrase a humorous example used by Barry Meadow to illustrate this in his thought-provoking book, “The Skeptical Handicapper” – even when Usain Bolt was the undisputed best sprinter on the planet, if he were to have broken his leg, then Bolt couldn’t beat a portly, pedestrian!
In another confounding twist, if a thoroughbred is in great shape and cranked up to run a career best whilst possessing the natural ability to be competitive but the race is not run to suit, then all the theoretical analysis counts for nix. A severely biased track in heavy going where speed on the rail rules would be an example of “circumstances” becoming the key handicapping factor. In this scenario, the fastest, fittest horse drawn on the wrong side of the course is doomed.
Those are the shifting challenges us horseplayers face. Public favorites win these days at slightly better than 35%. Even the most astute pro handicappers battle to improve on that and are wrong with their selections at least twice as often as they are right.
That’s why having a finely developed sense of what represents a value bet at the odds is so important. Betting these “overlays” as intelligently as possible is a sensible goal. And, getting “lucky” with a few big exotic dividends every now and then is another way to boost the bottom line in one very tough gambling game!