“Historians are not prophets” is an apt quote. Being able to make sense of things in hindsight is nowhere near as big of a skill as forecasting or predicting what might happen in future.
That said, sometimes, even doing an after-the-event, “post mortem” can be challenging. Conflicting evidence, maybe a lack of accurate data or biased perceptions can lead to incorrect analysis.
Turffontein’s Classic Day card is hard to assess. Speed figures hinge on having an accurate track variant, and when heavy rain is falling during a meeting, the going conditions are clearly changing, but it is difficult to measure precisely by how much the course is slowing down from one race to the next.
To try to account for this, speed figure makers will split or change the variant to reflect the reality of a changed surface. But setting that variant figure accurately is part art, part science. Those were the complications when assessing Saturday’s Highveld card, which saw many fancied horses underperform by big margins and others improve dramatically in the soft to hit career tops.
Comparing the Ruffian Stakes and JJ the Jet Plane Sprint run nearly five hours apart on deteriorating ground illustrates the difficulty. Glastonbury (s/s 94) is a smart juvenile adjusting for a relatively quicker variant in the opener. With the track slowing down during the afternoon, William Robertson is awarded a conservative s/s of 104, having managed 108 at best in the past.
3YO’s Fiery Pegasus (a Captain of All filly trained by Joe Soma) and Fabian Habib’s Fire Away gelding, Confederate both got very smart figs of 101 in the 1800m Grade 1’s, but the Horse Chestnut G1 was not true run, leading to Cosmic Speed attaining a s/s of only 97 ++ where usually 108 + is needed to win.
It is churlish to take away from the winners’ accomplishments but there were some dismal flops that opened the way for them to triumph. All of Spumante Dolci, VJ’s Angel, Parisian Walkway, Greaterix, Barbaresco, Lucky Lad and Main Defender (subsequently declared a non- runner after a mishap at the start) did not make anything like the expected impact suggested by their official merit ratings.
Horses are not machines. Their physical condition changes imperceptibly from race to race and a myriad shifting circumstances (e.g. changes in the going, an extremely fast or slow pace) can lead to fluctuating performances.
If the numbers stack up correctly then one of the best performances on the day measured against the clock was Gimmefabulous (s/s 103) in the Acacia Stakes. The Azzie’s lightly weighted, Gimmethegreenlight filly has now won four of eight starts and is a 3YO worth following.
Hotarubi (s/s 96 + has run 102 before) and Cymric (s/s 95) also got decent scores earlier in the program.