In South Africa, we’re typically used to racing under pretty benign conditions. Sure, a big thunderstom on the Highveld can dramatically change the state of the going or very windy conditions often prevail at the coastal circuits, but more extreme standards seem to apply in Europe and Britain. Despite freakish winter storms bought in by the “Beast from the East,” racing has not come to a complete stop, with meetings being staged in snow-storms, torrential rain and on seriously slushy ground. Jump jockeys must be very brave characters indeed to keep the show going on in Winter, based on the international visuals coming through recently on Tellytrack. 

The state of the ground is generally accepted to be a big determinant of race outcomes. European and British trainers will often speak about either helpful or problematic states of going for their entries, sometimes even scratching horses come race day if they deem the track conditions unsuitable. 
 
Yet, Len Ragozin, founder of The Sheets, an American speed rating service has a different take on the topic. Whilst he acknowledges that horses may be hesitant to go all out when it’s snowing or heavy rain is falling, he believes that “one of the most overrated precepts in handicapping is that there are certain horses who love mud, and others who hate it.”
His research shows that “at least 80% of horses are capable of going well in the slush, and 90% have at some point run badly in the mud.” His conclusion is that nearly all thoroughbreds when super fit and ready for action can handle an off track, but when in declining physical condition will use the heavy ground as an excuse to run badly. 
Such divergent opinions are what makes racing such a stimulating mental challenge, and is the basis for betting markets being in a constant state of flux. There is a wealth of accumulated wisdom in this game – the trick is to distinguish what is genuinely valid from those widely-held “myths” that, upon rigorous testing, may need to be tweaked or perhaps rejected.
Have a great punting week on “da ponies…”