| Some of the classier horses on the Highveld are now emerging as the Spring season unfolds. It’s an exciting time to monitor performances as the youngsters can make significant improvement and suddenly play themselves into the Classic picture. For example, favoured Broadway Trip (speed figure 99) just got past Flying Free (s/s 99) on the post in a strong Progress Plate at Turffontein and both should play a role in upcoming feature races. Broadway Trip is a perfect three from three and was seriously impressive coming from behind the very talented Flying Free, then showing determination in a driving finish.
Silver Thursday (s/s 94) is another making good progress. She was punted into favourite and stalked Mar del Sur (s/s 91) before asserting her superiority in a Progress Plate for fillies. She is capable of boosting her figures with maturity, and has loads of scope as a daughter of Silvano.
Some handicapping thoughts about layoffs: Punters are often reluctant to support horses returning from a rest. That’s understandable if the horse is not yet close to fitness and needs a few runs to race itself into shape. More problematic is when entries are “not well-meant” as the Americans would say, referring to trainer intentions of not giving it a full go, because they are prepping for future prizes.
Transparent work-out information would clearly help horseplayers make informed decisions about the race-readiness of layoff runners, and checking out upcoming nominations can also provide a clue. But, as a general guideline, bear in mind that certain horses actually produce their best efforts racing fresh, and it’s a mistake to overlook their claims on the assumption that they’re just idly going through the motions when resuming.
To illustrate with recent examples from Saturday’s races, both The Elmo Effect (s/s 96+) at 16/1 and Brazuca (s/s 97+) at 14/1 won as long shots returning from layoffs. The former has won twice and finished second on the three occasions that he’s made a comeback after a break, whilst Brazuca has won three times and finished second twice from five starts straight off a layoff.
They were virtually top rated in their respective races so should probably have been accorded more respect in the market based purely on ability and this “fresh, conditioning” angle. Interbet punters who took the generous odds were rewarded, whilst exotic bettors who lobbed them on to their main tickets were also smiling afterwards.
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