One of the things that punters look for are horses suited to the distance. It would seem an obvious fundamental factor when studying the past performances. However, Daniel O Sullivan, an Australian form expert from the Rating Bureau suggests there is very little difference in betting profits in some widely accepted, conventional categories, including record over the distance.
Horses with proven form at the distance may indeed win more often but the problem is they pay less. He believes that long term its more profitable to be counter-intuitive and not get too hung up about course and distance performances or winning strike rates.
If punting in South Africa, he might then have advocated taking a flyer on outsider, Super Silvano, who has repeatedly run strong figures of 106 over middle distances but popped up at 33/1 to win a 1250m Pinnacle sprint at Durbanville on Saturday and give the exotics a big boost!
Interbet ambassador Brett Crawford trains Super Silvano and the blinkered gelding was skillfully steered by Louis Mxothwa. He was good for a speed score of 98 in a weird race where the three primary horses at the top of the betting boards (Kasimir, Gainsford and Barney McGrew) filled the last three places!
Other notable achievements out at the country course were: Double Superlative quickening well to shed his Maiden; Power Grid (s/s 91) notching a quick repeat for trainer, Andries Steyn after winning a similar race two weeks ago; conditioner, Paul Reeves filling his pockets in the opening contests with Bonanza and Arctic Ice; and Bass Racing striking with a stable treble – Sky God, Master of Power and Symphony of Light.
Willows Wish clocked a mention in this column recently after getting a neat score (94 +) in Maritzburg and completed a hat-trick sequence at Turffontein. He was heavily punted from 4/1 into 2/1 then well handled by Lyle Hewitson to sweep through from off the pace and score in a MR 96 handicap. Willows Wish is a versatile customer having already won at three different racecourses in four starts – Vaal, Scottsville and now “Turffies”.
Some might claim that Willows Wish is an example to dispel the horses- for- courses theory, too. The Rating Bureau pundit from Oz quoted earlier is not saying that handicapping fundamentals don’t matter, however. Just that it sometimes pays to overlook the obvious and instead chance a horse unproven over the trip or going first time at a course. Sure, the probabilities of winning are much lower, but the more generous prices act as compensation on the rare occasions when they do arrive, a la Super Silvano.