2020 DURBAN JULY over 2200m @ GREYVILLE

GOLDEN DUCAT; 103 – 106 +. Cape Derby winner has done well subsequently up in KZN in the Guineas and Daily News. Consistent and game. Trainer Sands has made a subtle equipment change to his noseband to extract a quicker reaction from this classy middle- distance performer. Contender to perhaps get into the money with his efficient racing style from a low draw. Current Interbet ante-post odds of around 25/1.

RAINBOW BRIDGE; 109 * 110 112 113. 2019 Met winner. Possesses a versatile running style combined with a great turn of foot. Run out of it late by Do It Again in this race last year. High- class, carries weight well and a proven winner of G1’s. Always been near the top of the boards at around 9/2 and is bound to make a bold bid again. Has repeatedly run figures of 110 + which is the expected par speed score for winning the July. Big chance.

PADRE PIO; 104 – 106. Big, strapping thoroughbred on the up, according to trainer Dennis Bosch. Second in both the Guineas and Daily News after setting pace. May try make an early dash again carrying a light mass. A cloud hangs over him handling the 2200m journey, particularly if caught up in a stamina- sapping early pace duel with Silvano’s Pride. Hence the current quote of 50/1.

MIYABI GOLD; 103 Ran fifth a little over two lengths back in 2019 under similar terms. Can’t dismiss her entirely based on her solid Greyville course form, though she’s light on figures and seems an improbable winner, priced accordingly at 40/1.

SOQRAT; 112 – 113 – 114. Tough beat second after looping wide on turn behind Rainbow Bridge in the G1 Champions Cup last year so is entitled to finish upsides of that one again. Far from disgraced a month ago when three lengths off outstanding stable mate, Hawwaam. May find it a challenging assignment conceding weight to talented rivals set light weights, yet master-conditioner Mike de Kock reports he’s super fit and well. Will travel down from Joburg for this his last run before going off to Stud. Respected and could be a sensible each way play at 14’s to win and 22/10 for a top four finish.

TWIST OF FATE; 109. game and reliable so always a threat but has a few lengths to find to really threaten for the win. If able to work out a smooth trip racing handy from a decent draw then this astutely bought, bargain buy will go well just like last year when clocking in third. However, a leap of faith is required to expect anything better than another place for this 25/1 chance based on repeated lines of collateral form.

SHANGO; 104 – 106 +. Convincing victor of the Dingaans in November. Legit excuses in the SA Derby, though must still improve markedly on placed effort in the Daily News to menace the principals. This 20/1 shot is liable to show meaningful development as a fast maturing young horse and is worth tossing into single race exotic plays for the lower slots.

CAPOEIRA; 106 – 108. Gets a crack based on career best run in the Cup Trial. Handy running style fits the track profile but needs to boost figures to really play a part in the finish. Interbet have got him priced up at 100/1.

VARDY; 108 – 112 +. Primed to run big. Queens Plate winner with an outstanding turn of foot and admirable form up to 1800m. Excuses in Met after pecking badly so remains unproven this trip. Worthy of proper respect and is expected to be hurtling through late from off the pace. Principal candidate for the win and current price of 11/1 looks tempting.

DIVINE ODYSSEY; 103 – 107. Despite his quirks is a steady Highveld campaigner. Trainer van Vuuren says his charge is peaking after scoring in the Jubilee at Turffontein. Finished in the ruck in eighth place in last year’s clustered July finish and will need to step up to do any better this time round. Market price 60/1 and upwards.

TIERRA DEL FUEGO; 105 – 108 +. Progressive sort that is handicapped favourably vs Soqrat on their last clash in a G1 over 2000m so rates a plausible place contender for the powerful Sean Tarry stable. Will need a career best effort in answering doubters over the extended journey but Tarry loyalists will see him as by no means the worst outsider – quoted 45/1 a win and 7/1 for a top four finish.

IT’S MY TURN; 107 – 108. Aging and doughty stayer staging an admirable comeback (won Gold Vase and Gold Cup in 2018 then finished second in the G3 “Derby” last month.) Will need a pace meltdown to have any hope of challenging. 66/1 long shot.

GOT THE GREENLIGHT; 103 – 108 +. Arguably rates best of the three year-old generation. Impressed jockey Fayd’ Herbe (who knows what it takes to win a July) with his toughness and powers of acceleration when scoring in the Daily News. Loves this track having also won a G1 here at two years of age. Getting spirited support in early betting at around 8’s. A knock against him though is not lasting home in the SA Derby and he now faces a mighty stern test taking on accomplished elders over 2200m. Despite those negatives, suggest at least consideration for the places.

BUNKER HUNT; 106 +. Drew off impressively in the Drill Hall Stakes. Teed up to run a career peak and one to take seriously at the weights. For example, finished a length ahead of Soqrat in the KZN Guineas @ levels and now receives 4kg’s. Used to get heated up in the prelims but the “no crowds permitted” Corona virus lockdown rule will be in his favour. Despite niggling doubts over the extra ground and awkward barrier he should be a factor when it matters. Currently on offer in the 10/1 range.

SILVANO’S PRIDE; 103 – 105. She loves to go hard from the get-go so will certainly be a significant pace influence. If allowed a soft lead then she may contend into deep stretch, but difficult to envisage the Woolavington and Tibouchina victress hanging on for a share if pressured early by Padre Pio.

CAMPHORATUS; 104 – 107. Off -pace runner has upset twice before in Group races at 33/1 and 66/1 and was not disgraced when clunking up late for sixth in last year’s July. However, the feeling persists that this mare needs to run out of her skin to trouble the scorer. 125/1 rank outsider.

BELGARION; 109 +. Heavily- backed in the ante-post markets at 9/2 and appears to sneak in here leniently weighted with just 53kg’s. Physically in sharp condition. Has won six of eight starts versus weaker and will need a clean passage from a wide draw to sustain an extended winning sequence and pull off this long -range stable mission for Snaith Racing.

DO IT AGAIN; 111 – 115. Bidding for an unprecedented hat-trick in this iconic race. Serious racehorse when in the mood. Temperamental and erratic in recent months but a heartening prep when still underdone (after a farm rest) in the Gold Challenge was encouraging. “Superman” Marcus tasked with overcoming draw 18 and stoking up the feisty gelding to make history at current quotes of 13/1.

TRISTFUL (Reserve); 101 – 102. Was made to look like a tree by Belgarion at their most recent clash in the G2 1900, which makes it hard to see him shaping even with a light weight.

HERO’S HONOUR (Reserve); 100. Steady performer on the Highveld, touching off Divine Odyssey in a nip and tuck duel in February. This is much harder – seems in too deep here.