Thoroughbred performances are not as consistent as people may assume. Instead, horses’ ability waxes and wanes depending on their changing physical condition and shifting circumstances.

Only 30% of the time do horses perform at a similar level or improve on recent runs. Within this 30% subset, most winners improve on their recent form so it’s a mistake to fixate on the horse that already has the best figure as it is four times more likely that a contending rival will improve past it. Meanwhile, the other 70% in any race are generally doing worse than their true capabilities.

As a punter, the trick is to bet on improving horses, as they win the majority of races (and usually at better odds), and try duck those that are going into decline, for whatever reason.

Interbet ambassador, Brett Crawford commented after Silvano’s Dasher’s fine win at Kenilworth on Saturday, just how quickly he seems to be improving. The figures bear Crawford’s view out – increasing from 98 – 102 – 106 and now 107 as the grey has gotten sizzling hot during Summer.

Sired by Silvano, the five-year-old has now won five of eight starts between 1250 and 1400m. Silvano’s Dasher was perfectly placed by Keagan de Melo on the rail in midfield suitably settled well off a scorching pace before moving through towards the inside to run out a convincing winner.

Another to take out of this key race is Pacaya (s/s 102 +, may even be able to hit 110). He was pitched high as a three-year-old (ran in the Queen’s Plate) but wasn’t the soundest back then, hence the long subsequent layoff. He made a notable comeback on Saturday, and this potentially top horse can win a big race if kept in one piece by the expert Snaith Racing outfit.

The flip side of progression is regression. American handicappers are inclined to call it “the bounce” – a term which describes when a horse, negatively affected by a strenuous recent effort, will decline at his next start if not able to fully recover from those previous exertions.

All sportmen get “” muscle sore” after draining matches and managing their physical recovery is vital to sustaining good performances when next they play.

The same principle applies to racehorses, making the role of the trainer so significant. By understanding the physical capabilities of each individual horse in their care they can space runs optimally. Knowing when to push hard or back off is an art. Doing it right ensures getting more good runs than bad ones out of their charges – and avoiding the dreaded “bounce” factor.