Speed figure merchants found it frustratingly difficult to make accurate track variants over the weekend at both Turffontein and Durbanville due to heavy rain and deteriorating surfaces.

Usually, it’s possible to analyze the difference between the expected time for any class of race over a specific distance at a certain course and the actual time recorded, then arrive at an accurate track variant, before making the speed figs. But when the surface is changing race by race at varying rates there is too much guesswork involved, confounding the best efforts of diligent figure makers.

As a fall back we can project what seems reasonable based on historical precedent – i.e. what the horses have achieved in the past or what is typical for a race of a certain standard. Doing so “reveals” the following numbers for some of Saturday’s notable performances:

  • At Turffontein, Leaving Las Vegas (s/s 89) edged out Elegant Ice (s/s 88) in the G3 Pretty Polly Stakes for juvenile fillies.
  • Lucky Lad (s/s 93) came with a late surge to get past the swerving debutant, market springer, Amber Rock (s/s 91) in the G3 Protea Stakes for two-year-olds.
  • Formerly consistent and now back in form after a few misfires, Rain In Holland cranked out her typical fig of 104 in going all the way in the G2 Colorado King.
  • Sheela (s/s 101+) is very zippy on her day.
  • Avoontoast (s/s 83 ++) shows potential to run much bigger numbers after romping at her second start and is worth following.
  • At Durbanville, Blue Holly (s/s 94) won again at a course that suits her style perfectly.
  • Interbet ambassador, Brett Crawford saddled a stable exacta when Miss Greenlight and Fleeting fought out a tight finish in a Class 3 handicap, meriting solid scores of 94 each.
  • Silver Falcon (s/s 100) loves it when it comes up mud, getting a perfect rail skimming ride from Grant van Niekerk to win untroubled.
  • Seeking Peace (s/s 87) another mud lark, relished the sloppy bog to close out the Cape card.

Two contrasting performances stood out from Meydan in Dubai at that big money showcase meeting. Ushba Tesora coming from dead last for victory in the World Cup was particularly exciting. The strong early pace indeed set it up for closers but full credit to Japanese jockey Yuga Kawada who was having his first ride on the six-year-old horse that has been transformed since switching to dirt. He judged it perfectly on the champ, showing poise and nerves of steel to carry out difficult hold up tactics on the sand.

Using precisely the opposite approach to winning races, Equinox was superb from the front in the Sheema Classic. He sustained a cruising speed of around 59km per hour for much of the journey before hitting top gear and reaching 65 km per hour in the straight. This devastating combination of being able to accelerate off a strong gallop proved way too much for his rivals to cope with – and he duly obliterated them. A world class turf display by yet another Japanese super star.