When experienced horseplayers think back, I wonder what they would consider the most significant changes that have taken place affecting the betting scene, and if the game is more difficult or easier, as a consequence.
What got me thinking about this was a fascinating chat with one of the bigger punters from decades ago (since retired) who recalled the paucity of form information conveyed way back then in the published race card/newspaper. Unplaced horses would barely get mentioned so his edge was to find horses that, whilst finishing out the money, still ran pretty well. He and a betting partner would studiously maintain their own set of index cards for each horse in Cape Town and print out their personal form book at the local library.
Only someone engrossed in the game and highly motivated to win would tolerate all that effort – yet their labours were, on occasions, handsomely rewarded. One memorable Saturday, an outsider they’d unearthed using their meticulous record-keeping methods, won at 60/1! After the win, place and swinger bets were toted up, these intrepid punters had won the equivalent of two years’’ middle manager’s salary!
Is such a feat attainable today in a single race bet? The answer is probably no – given how inflation has reduced the value of money over time, together with shrinking net-after-tax pool sizes measured in real terms. Arguably, punters now are better equipped, enlightened by much improved form guides and comprehensive TV/live streaming coverage of races. Computer power has also made processing of vital information swifter. This makes the markets more efficient, driving down dividends which renders achieving a killing in any single race Tote wager practically impossible these days, with the exception of certain Quartet pools.
In the modern- day SAF-tote offering, only P6’s can still be life- changing as the size of the pools (especially with carry overs on big days) are large enough. Even with the advanced sophistication of horseplayers and the introduction of % betting which allows bettors to include all the horses they think can possibly win at an affordable outlay, the difficulty of catching a complex, sequential wager with millions of possible outcomes still wipes out most of the participants, leading to substantial dividends.
The desire to generate profits via one big home run hit might also explain a shifting trend with sharp punters nowadays preferring to take multiples with bookies. They can load up on long-odds doubles or trebles to capitalize on their opinions, making it really count on those special days when their analysis is spot on.
There are still old-school punters out there who follow more conservative game plans, avoiding the siren call of exotics/multiples and grinding out profits betting super-selectively to win or going heavily each way when the odds are in their favour. Either approach can work, but it remains one extremely tough game to beat with maybe only 3% – 4% of punters having the skills and good fortune to make it pay over the long term.
“Much is unknowable, and we’re not as smart as we think,” is an apt quote from another retired pro punter, Barry Meadow. That sensible cautionary remains pertinent for as long as horse racing has been going on. It also puts things in perspective to ensure that even the most brazenly confident, profit orientated gamblers with access to excellent analytical tools still play responsibly, thereby not getting too badly burnt when those inevitable losing streaks come along.