Cynics may decry playing the horses as a “mugs game,” which is a fair assessment for the majority of recreational players who treat it as a form of entertainment that comes at a cost. Winning horseplayers do exist, however – they’re in a small, elite minority and even the best of them humbly acknowledge it’s a very hard gig to get right over the long term.
Like most participant sports, there are many who play and enjoy the game, but only relatively few aspire to professional status. In fact, most serious, profit-minded punters, when pressed, will reveal that their edge is actually rather slim, and they need to work very hard on research and analysis before pushing through large betting turnovers to make that small margin count.
Indeed, the past few meetings under review have seen more misses than hits. Dieci was punted in the opener at Greyville on the 22nd July but failed to land a blow, beaten out the money into sixth. Attempts at recouping those losses on Exclusive Quantity (7/2 – 16/10) also dipped out when market rival Truly Wicked proved way too strong.
On Saturday, form-less Wonderful Winter was backed from 7/1 into half that price in a Work Rider’s race at Kenilworth but never looked likely. Captain Of Tortuga was a universal banker in the first leg of the Pick Six and featured on many multiple tickets, yet was in trouble being hard ridden around the turn and could only manage third. Sommersonne is also becoming an expensive horse to follow and met the same fate after being backed from 2’s into odds –on. Nasty Harry was another money burner to go down. Backed from 9/2 into 2/1, he got underway too late, finishing behind stable-mate Valbonne (who looks promising) and pace- setting Olympian in a falsely run Pinnacle sprint.
The Saturday meeting at Turffontein ultimately evened out in the punters vs bookies slugfest. Though backers miscued with a few attempts, some sharp wagers were landed in retaliation. Samurai Warrior (Race 1), Winter Storm (most traded on the day, in Race 2) and a narrowly denied, Dame Kelly in Race 7, all garnered plenty of betting action yet failed to get the job done.
Winning moves focussed on up-and-coming apprentice Luke Ferraris who came close to riding the Jackpot. If not for Dame Kelly’s narrow miss he would have completed the perfect sequence. His mount, Jet Start won the fifth, backed down to 4/1; victor, Autumn Rain was freely available at 10’s, with O Lucky Man shortening from 10’s into 5’s in a low grade handicap before saluting.
Friday night on the Greyville Polytrack saw three attempted strikes in the opening races, all of which missed the mark. In the first, Lady Jackson tightened from 3/1 into 18/10 yet could only manage third behind favourite Making Waves. Buckleberry was smashed into odds on in Race 2 but found Rockcliff three quarters of a length superior, then the splurge on Fleek (7’s – 3’s) in Race 3 was similarly denied by Spiffy. An attempted escape with Borya in Race 6 was shut down by outsider, Amor Ardiente to put punters in an even deeper hole.
A few shrewdies’ staged a revival when finding Tombola, who was backed at long odds in Race 7. The juvenile filly had been regularly placed at her previous seven starts so wasn’t devoid of form going in to the race, albeit others were much preferred. Tombola was initially on offer at 20/1 on Interbet, a tempting price which attracted early interest.
Other notable winning wagers over the weekend were on Elusive Trader (15/10 – 1/1) and Grand Silvano (11/2 -7/2) in the Cape. The former has overcome shin-soreness and looks to have a bright future after showing natural gate speed then determination in the finish. Make a note of the runner up, Bunker Hunt – he scared Elusive Trader’s fans badly when closing quickly late and will be a formidable prospect next up.
Grand Silvano hails from the in-form Brett Crawford stable, who had 12 top two finishers from their last 30 runners saddled going into past Saturday’s meeting. The game winner was completing a hat-trick, though there was honour in defeat for admirably tough second horse Orakal, conceding 7kg’s to his contemporary and going down just half a length.