Horseplayers are an interesting breed. Dedicated to a fascinating yet, at times, maddening game, they bet on outcomes over which they exercise no control whatsoever. Sure, studying form conscientiously, updating handicapping research with proven, modern methods and using smart betting strategies elevates the pursuit above a pure chance gamble, but the horses can’t talk and jockeys make either inspired or dubious race riding moves totally independent of punter’s fervent wishes.
Perhaps it’s that strange disconnect between what bettors hope for and what they can influence (actually, very little beyond simply making good betting decisions based on available evidence) which causes all sorts of superstitions to thrive.
Some owner/punters refuse to walk through Number 1 box before a race, others may have a favourite place in the stands to root for their fancies. Dressing in a particular lucky colour or clothes, or betting on horses belonging to the first connections they bump into when arriving at the track are other peculiarities. Plus of course, “numerologists” who insist on always including their preferred numbers when putting together perms even if on form it looks like their pick may struggle to beat the ambulance home.
None of this has any scientific basis but it serves the comforting purpose of setting punters minds at peace as they try deal with the chaos inherent in a low validity environment like racing. And, just sometimes these delusional dreamers” prevail over the computer syndicates/decision modelers who are ruthlessly objective in calculating probabilities and odds.
La Bella Mia (speed score 105) won the Merchants on Friday night at 22/1. The Gimmethegreenlight filly took advantage of a light weight and a perfect trip from an inside draw to deny another outsider, the late charging Wynkelder, with heavy weight, pace- setter Bold Respect and poorly drawn Kasimir completing the quartet.
Marco van Rensburg rode La Bella Mia for trainer Weiho Marwing to her fifth win from 19 starts. She benefitted from a perfect set-up to score her most important win to date as the stars aligned for her “lucky” supporters.