The Jackpot as a bet type has been around for a long time in SA. Called the Pick 4 in America and the Quaddie in Oz, it requires forecasting the winner of four successive races.
With Interbet clients now able to bet into huge daily Quaddie pools in Australia, constructing smart Jackpot perms can be the key to bringing down some really big dividends. Please be aware that the betting unit is R1 and no fractional betting is permitted.
Let’s look at the pros and cons of the wager then consider strategies that Interbet bettors might apply to give themselves a fair shake of a big collect.
Pros: By definition, a Jackpot means selecting winners, often an easier task than coming up with the third of fourth place finisher as required in Trifecta and Quartet bets.
The takeout tax is effectively spread across four races.
The longer the sequence, the harder the bet, so whilst a P4 is tougher to hit than a P3, it’s significantly easier/more affordable than a P6.
Jackpots often pay pretty well given the expected probabilities of covering four consecutive winners.
Cons: The error factor can be a freak out – one lapse and you’re sunk. Bankers can let you down or you bomb out when not going deep enough in competitive races. This can trigger demoralizing losing streaks, so a committed Jackpot bettor needs to have both the mental strength and bankroll to withstand long unproductive spells.
Sophisticated players will grade horses into various categories and take multi tickets to express their nuanced opinions – but this can be a complex and fraught exercise, even for the pros. And, it may be too time-consuming for recreational punters to do properly.
As the bet is taken “blind” beforehand, you don’t know what it will pay relative to your outlay. You can make an educated guess, sure, and most of the time it pays out more than simply multiplying the odds of the four winners (parlay) which is cool when that happens, but the bet typically underpays when a procession of obvious favorites come in.
Choosing a preferred betting style depends on your skill level, budget and temperament something an individual punter must work out for themselves based on personal experience. Consider these suggested approaches and decide which one (or a variation thereof) fits best for you.
We’ll consider a few Jackpot strategies from the most basic to more complex constructions.
Simplest of all is a so-called “caveman ticket” – a solitary perm combining the punter’s selections in each leg, e.g. 3 x 5 x 2 x 6 = R180. There is no distinction between how each live horse is rated; they are all deemed to have a similar chance of winning and the punter simply hopes to get through the sequence with the best possible results.
Another tactic, advocated by professional punter Jon Stettin in his pastthewire.com and amwager blog is to make a “foundation” play, similar to a caveman ticket, then he “goes back and presses” his stronger opinions in certain legs to try win the bet more times.
In the above example, he might prefer two of the five live runners in the second leg and like one of the six runners in the last leg better than the others so he would fashion two additional perms to his foundation play of R180. They would be 3 x 2 x 2 x 6 = R72 and 3 x 5 x 2 x 1 = R30.
Most complicated of all are flexible multi-ticket plays which are designed to suit the flow of each unique card, depending on a handicapper’s best judgement. After throwing out the no-hopers (a task which is admittedly easier said than done), every runner with a chance of winning is ranked as either a Banker, Main or Alternative selection.
Numerous tickets are compiled to allow the player to dip into his back up/ alternative group once or twice, assuming he comes through the other legs with correct Bankers and Main choices. If things fall neatly into place, being right when going short and lucky when casting a wide net, then a bonanza is possible!
In this example, there are no back up horses in Leg 4, a difficult race where seven runners with equal claims are needed to survive the sequence.
The first ticket comprises the Banker and Main choices and may well be taken multiple times as it reflects the bettors’ strongest opinion: Banker x 3 Main’s x 2 Mains x 7 Mains = R42.
Now check out this “Miss One” combination where the second ticket substitutes five alternative choices in Leg 2: Banker x 5 Alternatives x 2 Mains x 7 Mains = R70.
The third ticket substitutes three alternative selection in Leg 3: Banker x 3 Mains x 3 Alternatives x 7 Mains = R63.
Both these Miss One tickets enable the punter to be slightly wrong but still stay alive. They would be taken fewer times or at a lesser percentage than the first firing line perm.
A “Miss Two” play, following on from the previous illustration, would involve using back ups in both the 2nd and 3rd legs. Banker x 5 Alternatives x 3 Alternatives x 7 Mains = R105.
Here the punter can slightly miscue twice without going out. This perm, which is the weakest based on the punters form assessment, would be taken even fewer times or at a lower % compared to the previous tickets.
Playing this way, arguably, is the shrewdest, most cost-effective strategy providing the best possible coverage of a handicappers’’ subtle opinions.
Whatever method you chose, in exotics like the Jackpot as in life itself, you’ll need to get lucky. A recent Lottery winner explained afterwards that, “I’’d been dreaming of the number seven so decided to buy ticket number 48 because 7 x 7 is 48!” For this innumerate and incredibly fortunate citizen, being plain lucky proved far better than being good at maths!