Odds-on favourites generate a special fascination among bettors, carrying the hopes of many, yet with a serious downside should they get rolled. This applies both in the fixed odds market and on exotic tickets, where they are commonly used as bankers, and raises the question -Is it possible to make proper money backing at short prices?
Odds are simply percentage probabilities converted into prices. Even money reflects a 50% chance, 6/10 carries a 62% likelihood, with a 4/10 shot expected to win 71% of the time. Wagering at these prices requires a substantial stake to make it worthwhile, and there is little leeway for being wrong too often at such cramped odds. Perhaps, that is why most horseplayers shy away from betting deep “in the red.”
However, some well capitalized, cagey professionals, highly selective in their approach, may relish backing so-called, “racing certainties” when they seemingly tower above the opposition. They may also hook up these hot shots in doubles to multiply the accumulative odds. Combining an 8/10 fancy, that just about has to fall down to lose, with a rock-solid 3/1 pick, works out to a nourishing 6/1 double for two quite unremarkable opinions.
This past week, punters around the world were again confronted with a number of high-profile, odds on stand-outs. As ever, the key task for bettors is to distinguish between legit favourites and those that are vulnerable.
Saxon Warrior got toppled in the Investec Derby at Epsom, whilst Oh Susanna scrambled home in the Grade 1 Woolavington at Greyville. Tomorrow, Justify is a short price to win the Belmont in New York and complete an historic Triple Crown.
Damon Runyon, a very funny newspaperman and short story writer, put together a brilliant cautionary tale about the perils of plunging at short prices in his 1938 compilation book, “Take It Easy.” His character, Unser Fritz, a washed out old horseplayer, suddenly gets on a sensational winning roll, playing up a few borrowed notes into a hundred thousand dollars. He sets out to impress his ex- girlfriend Emma with an extravagant gift of emeralds, but they cost precisely a thousand dollars more than he possesses. So, he persuades a bookie at Saratoga to offer him 1/100 a place about a mare, Cara Mia, who looks invincible for the win in a four runner contest, then stakes his entire bankroll to secure the extra grand needed to keep restless, “Emerald Em” satisfied.
Runyon, a notorious gambler himself, narrates; “There is really nothing that can make Cara Mia run out of the money, the way I look at it, except what happens to her, and what happens is she steps in a hole fifty yards from the finish when she is on top by ten and breezing, and down she goes all spread out, and of course the other three horses run on past her to the wire, and all this is a quite a disaster to many members of the public, including, Unser Fritz.”
Runyon continues, “I am thinking what a great injustice it is for them to leave holes in the track for horses to step in, when Unser Fritz says like this: “Well, he says, “it is horse racing.”
You have to admire such a philosophical attitude! We’re all going to back more losers than winners, given the nature of the game, of course – but, be careful, those short priced flops can be especially ruinous.
Horseplayer’s prefer to dwell on successful strikes, so let’s finish up with some uplifting accounts. During this past week, Made to Conquer, Surcharge, Imperial Quest, Milisende, Magnificent Seven, Var Agtig, Perfect Air and Robberg Express attracted waves of support on Interbet before winning. Very well done to their super-sharp connections and the sussed punters who were rewarded for lumping on!