Peach Daiquiri scored a speed figure of 80 on Friday at Fairview which is not remarkable in itself. Yet her eight lengths win left punch-drunk punters debating the subsequent controversy. Her surprised trainer Sharon Kotzen commented beforehand that it was an educational run, yet her charge was backed from 8’s into 5/2 favorite before sauntering to victory.

Critics would slam this as another example of inside graft where trainers are less than candid about the prospects of their charges. In an ideal world, punters would be guided not by trainer’s subjective opinions a few days before or even on race day, but instead by videos of workouts/ trials, accurate clocker reports, published horse weights and vet treatment records.

Such a transparent flow of information applies in Hong Kong and certain States in America, and it is a much fairer situation for horse players who can then base their bets on objective data rather than trainer comments, however well-intentioned they may be.

Disenchanted punters need to realize though that even armed with the best work out info, horses are still unpredictable creatures and there is a lot of randomness and variation in race results.

Hong Kong is considered one of the most efficient betting markets on the planet with powerful computer syndicates betting into massive pools yet on Saturday an unconsidered 199/1 bomb stunned practically everybody.

Encountered had run three times this season without getting anywhere close to troubling the judge before suddenly waking up in the season’s finale, a Class 3 over 1600m, out of the blue notching a fine speed figure of 101.Trainer Manfred Man declared that he did not think it possible for the horse to win. He stated that Encountered had run twice over inadequately short distances (@ odds of 23/1 and 134/1) and was not suited by a soft track at his third try (when priced at 73/1), so a more respectable showing was anticipated based on improved track work and a firmer Sha Tin surface. This is not the same as saying his horse could win, and it appears he too was gob-smacked by the dramatic form reversal.

The takeaway for Interbet followers is that horses can make fools of the shrewdest insiders, and even sharp analysts with loads of data get caught looking the wrong way.

This is a game of probabilities, not certainties. If the odds are accurate (which they are most of the time) then it doesn’t mean that huge, long shots cannot win – just that they are very unlikely to do so. Occasionally, bizarre outsiders will gatecrash the party and leave us all scratching our heads in bewilderment. Realize too, that a rock solid 8/10 odds on favorite who is strongly fancied to get the job done, still has a 45% chance of getting beat.

Nobody claims this game is easy. Betting when the odds are in your favor (using your best judgement based on available, reliable data) at least gives you a chance to make a go of things over the long term.

Applying a steady approach of wagering on overlays will help to keep you sane when racing chaos kicks in. This is an inevitability in a dynamic game featuring trainers/jocks with widely varying competencies and motives – and fickle thoroughbreds unable to tell us how they feel about this whole horse racing lurk!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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