Nothing is more fundamental in handicapping than working out how good each horse is and the circumstances under which they do best. However, a short cut to homing in on solid contenders is to check out trainer/jockey combinations.
A high percentage strike rate for both wins and places is obviously a good sign. It shows both intent and skill – trainers have go-to jocks that they use when their charge is cranked up to full fitness and they believe are entered in a suitable race under favorable conditions. American horseplayers would say such a horse is “well-meant” – an apt description.
Listed below are the trainer/ jockey combos in South Africa with winning strike rates of 20% + that also hit the places 60% of the time. Backing them blindly is probably not the key to the mint (nobody said this game is easy!) yet using that stat as a powerful basis together with sharp handicapping judgement will pick out many winners across the course of the season.
There are 12 currently active, hot combos measured from August 2021 to February 2023 who meet the stringent criteria. Some are top jocks riding for big yards, so the data is probably already built into prices and has limited utility. Other combinations are less obvious:
Snaith/Fourie 22% W 62% Pl
Bass/Domeyer 25% 68%
Greeff/Fourie 20% 62%
Snaith/van Niekerk 20% 62%
Wright/de Melo 25% 69%
Van Vuuren/Lerena 21% 64%
Kotzen/Fourie 28% 67%
Azzie/Khumalo 24% 64%
Magner/Lerena 23% 61%
Dawson/de Melo 28% 72%
De Kock/Fourie 20% 67%
Tarry/de Melo 22% 64%
Honorable mentions go to the duos who just miss out on one or the other “requirement” In this group too, take note of stables with lower profiles that are seriously competitive with their go-to jocks, even if the sample sizes are smaller.
Botes/Khumalo 23% 55%
Azzie/de Gouveia 25% 50%
Van Vuuren/de Melo 19% 55%
Sage/Yeni 18% 58%
Pettigrew/Matsunyane 18% 62%
Magner/Yeni 18% 58%
Ultimately, it’s about the horse – guess that’s why it’s called horse racing. But human input also counts for a great deal in this game. And, if the odds are generously out of whack, then having these guys on your side makes a lot of sense when putting bets together.