There is an obvious home ground advantage when wagering at your local track. Even reasonably observant casual fans can form sound opinions if they concentrate only on the small group of horses that race at home base.
But with the expansion to round the clock international racing coverage, together with the reduction in local meetings (e.g. Cape racing fans have only 60 scheduled for Kenilworth and Durbanville during 2022) many punters are nowadays trying to spread themselves wider for more action.
Full time pros can allocate the time required to build up databases and follow the form right around South Africa, plus maybe venture into overseas markets as well, but that is impractical for recreational punters burdened by work and family responsibilities.
Many bettors prefer then to seek out tips to short cut the selection process and make wagering decisions based on other people’s analysis and opinions. When these public tipsters publish an historic review of their betting suggestions, punters can decide to support them or not based on their track records. This is way better than succumbing to the fake news and unsubstantiated claims of grand profits made by some less honorable tipsters.
Of course, what you do with the selections is a personal matter – some use them simply to punt or construct multiples whilst others prefer to use the tips as the basis for crafting more complicated exotic wagers.
To my mind, the best tipsters to follow are those that are not only proven as successful and sharp bettors, but also add educational value to their columns/podcasts/TV shows by discussing in some detail their methods of analysis. That way we gain insights into the process that they use to arrive at their selections which enhances our knowledge of handicapping, and we can then choose to incorporate that into our own personal methods.
Some of the current tipster’s I believe are worth following, include:
Tim Carroll on attheraces.com does excellent previews for Hong Kong. He is attuned to the strict class hierarchies in Hong Kong and is a sharp trip handicapper who watches races with an eagle eye which colors his interpretation of the form. Then he tries to predict who will get the best commute in the upcoming race – assuming they are pitched at the right class level. He labels his Best Bet, Next Bet and Value Bet together with providing informative race by race previews.
Hugh Taylor can be found on the same website – his focus are longer shots/value plays and over the years he has returned excellent profits in British racing by creatively ferreting out price horses that have been undervalued by the bookies. He is held in such high regard that the market usually reacts to his tips with horses shortening once he goes public.
He is dexterous in his approach – not wedded to a single, set methodology. Taylor uses figures to work out the core ability of horses and always considers the circumstances under which they earned those ratings. Added to his vast bag of “detective tricks” are trend analysis of trainers, pedigree research, plus up to date checks on ever- shifting track/draw biases around the UK.
Simon Rowlands used to be with Timeform but now does expert sectional analysis for attheraces.com. His insights into handicap ratings using pace and speed figures are pitched at a very sophisticated level. He also delves into stride length and cadence data. Not only does this handicapping doyen come up with super-sussed selections, but he goes into elegant detail describing how he reaches these conclusions. His columns make for fascinating reading and add to the body of knowledge for aspiring horseplayers.
Andy Holding is a seasoned pro referred to as the “pundits pundit”. He provides daily tips for UK races on the oddschecker.com website. He too uses speed figures and sectional times to home in on the “right” horses. He loves finding medium odds fancies that he typically puts up as each way bets, and most of the time they are contenders in the finish. A very solid and dependable adviser.
Matt Brocklebank writes a value- orientated piece for Sportinglife.com. Recently, he promoted Noble Yeats, the 50/1 winner of the 2022 Grand National, that featured in last week’s Interbet story! His modus operandi is classical weight handicapping to try spot horses that may be ahead of the official handicapper. He also performs detailed trend analysis and uses a variety of other form studying angles to come up with wacky/contrarian choices.
Given the nature of his brief focusing on longshots, Brocklebank is often totally wrong but the times he calls it right provides ample compensation for all those inevitable misfires as he steadfastly opposes obvious market leaders.
So, when next placing wagers on either UK or HK races, do yourself a favor and consult these afficionados with proven track records of profits over the years. Though they too suffer dispiriting losing streaks (all gamblers go ice cold from time to time), I submit that not only will you enjoy reading their columns, but a happy consequence will be an upgrading of your own handicapping education by tapping into their muti-facetted approaches.
Whilst I’m willing to live or die based on my own research and opinions for SA racing, I certainly relish and absorb their sophisticated take on things before committing hard-earned cash through the Interbet portal, whenever wagering on international racing!