This week’s handy hint looks at a type of “short form’ analysis that cuts down on the time spent studying the past performances. The idea is to “punt on profile” – choosing a powerful angle or edge and stick to betting only those horses that meet the specific criteria.
Doing things this way doesn’t work for exotic wagering where you need to have a well-considered opinion/grade for every horse in the race or sequence of races. But it is an effective approach when punting selectively at fixed odds or hooking up a few horses you love in multiples.
Any substantive factor can be used when “punting on profile.” It may be as simple as following a certain high percentage trainer/jockey combination or backing the best weighted entry.
Bear in mind though that the more obvious the factor is (and most published data falls into this category) – the more likely it is already factored into an efficient market price.
So, a slightly more esoteric, yet still practical approach based on historical trends is needed to get a real edge.
Supporting handy/pace pressing types at a speed orientated track like Durbanville is one such smart angle. All the data over many years shows that speed on the rail (or at least the ability to race handy and make an early inside move) is the best way to win races at Durbanville.
Given that Cape racing will be staged over the next three months out at the country course, knowing what riding tactics work best (based on past and present trends,) can quickly help punters label likely winners. And, avoid squandering their cash on horses that are disadvantaged by running against the track bias.
So, this ‘punting on profile’ maxim could be to simply reject any horse that comes from off the pace (even if it seems to tower above the opposition based on ability/collateral form) and look instead for fit horses with proven records/competitive figures at the class level of today’s race that typically go well up front or handy.
Sweeping through a card using a filter like this can be done quickly and may appear superficial, but is a soundly based approach that promotes sensible, selective wagering.
Punters in tune with the Polytrack biases at Fairview and Greyville can come up with their own versions of what is optimal based on the prevailing wind/track configuration and focus on those few horses on each card that qualify with the ‘right’ running style.
Have fun creating your own “punting on profile” filters, fire up your Interbet Fixed Odds account and give it a go!