Horses are not machines. Their performance changes due to shifting physical condition. Unlike sportsmen who can tell their coaches how they feel on any given day, the subtly fluctuating form of thoroughbreds is much harder to discern.
The top modern trainers may run blood picture tests, weigh their charges regularly, have heartrate monitors and use reams of scientific data to check on the fitness levels of the horses in their care.
Old time trainers would be able to intuitively gauge a horse’s wellbeing by the energy of their morning workouts, general appearance, demeanor and appetite – what was referred to as “training from the manger”.
Equine body language can reveal a great deal. The dapples, gloss and sheen of the coat; way the neck arches or the ears prick forward alertly; carrying position of the tail and being fluent/” springy” going through the gaits are positive signs of a “ready” horse.
Negative signs indicating a sore, frightened or angry racehorse include, but are not limited to, flattened ears; tail swishing from side to side; glaring eyes; choppy/ “ouchy” strides and maybe, excessive sweating. Others just appear listless, dull and disinterested in the whole racing lurk.
Having an eye for a fit and primed horse is a competitive advantage in an era where most of the big bettors and computer wagering teams are data dependent, number crunchers. Few even bother going to the races anymore and saturation coverage of continual racing around the world on T.V. means that not much is shown of the parade and canter past for those working from home offices.
That said, access to live streaming coverage of a specific meeting is helpful. Visually gifted judges can see enough detail in the preliminaries to form accurate opinions about the race readiness of each entrant.
Alternatively, some handicappers try to use ratings to foretell performance. They look for patterns in the figures to anticipate improving, stable or declining form.
An example would be expecting a horse to struggle at the next start immediately after an exhausting, gut-busting effort. Just as sportsmen need time to rehabilitate after a torrid, marathon match, unless given a sufficient break to recover from a taxing run, the horse will probably back up and do worse/”bounce” next time out.
The main take away from this blog is that punters that can anticipate change put themselves way ahead of the game.
Too often, racing fans make the mistaken assumption that things will just stay the same and a horse that recently ran to a certain rating will inevitably do so again.
However, shifting physical condition and changing race circumstances mean that some deviation in performance is more likely.
Anticipating that a heavy favorite might decline after a series of big runs, and an esoteric outsider in great shape is poised to deliver a career best performance can be the key to making a big score.