Moving horses around the country to maximise their career requires sharp judgement. Admittedly, it’s sometimes just a desperate last roll of the dice when an infirm battler is banished to a weaker centre to get patched up and try fluke a final win, and we’re all familiar with upper-class horses trekking to KZN for prestigious Stakes races during Winter or heading to Cape Town for the big Summer events. Stuck in between these extremes are the medium level horses that can be shifted between centres to take advantage of different surfaces, subtly inferior fields and varying states of going.
Captain of Tortuga, Saltoro Ridge and The Dazzler are cases in point. All were backed to win, and got the job done, after relocating. The former used to be with Snaith Racing in the Cape and won by four lengths first time out for Ormond Ferraris in a Turffontein sprint. Saltoro Ridge has been quite the traveller, starting his racing career in Cape Town, moving up to Port Elizabeth then continuing his coastal adventure in Durban. The gelding shortened from 11/1 to 3/1 in a Novice 1600m contest at Greyville as some clever punters hooked him up in doubles with Sharpe’s Eagle, also from the canny Andre Nel stable – he prevailed over Waiting for Change to land the strike.
The Dazzler won on debut for James Goodman at 50/1 in May 2017 and ran some decent races in KZN before being sold at a dispersal when Goodman retired. Re-emerging in the Mike de Kock stable on the Highveld, the son of Mogok has done well in Assessment Plates and, most recently, in an MR 90 Handicap. He beat off Tendre after being backed from 5/2 into 18/10, to conclude the Summer Cup program. Other well supported horses to score at that Saturday meeting were Comaneci (9/2 – 3/1), Schippers (5/1 – 33/10), Nafaayes (5/1 – 7/2) and Zillzaal (4/1 – 2/1).
The name “Comaneci” refers to Nadia Comaneci, a petite Romanian gymnast who attained the first ever perfect ten score at the Olympics. She performed this feat on the uneven bars and went on to record six other 10’s in Montreal in 1976, adding two subsequent faultless scores when collecting gold at the 1980 Moscow Olympics.
Achieving perfect ratings in events that are qualitatively judged by flawed, and sometimes biased, observers is problematic. Questionable scoring practices don’t apply in racing, of course, where the outcome is reflected unequivocally by finishing position, yet no punter can ever hope to achieve perfection. Instead, in the period under review, there were far more money-burning misses, than accurate hits.
The Vaal meeting on the 29th November, Greyville on the 30th and Scottsville’s 2nd December card were particularly punishing on punters. When backers took on a vulnerable favourite, it won for fun and when hammering popular short- priced fancies, punters watched them got rolled. Such are the harsh realities of wagering on “da ponies” – scientific researchers would drily describe horse racing as a “low validity environment.”
Mathematical simulations show what sequence of losers we can expect at varying levels of proficiency. When backing winners at a 25% rate, there’s a 10% chance of suffering 9 losses in a row and a 1% chance of that losing sequence stretching to a dispiriting 17 in succession. At a 30% hit rate there’s a 5% chance of enduring nine losers in a row. If improving the win rate to an exceptional 40%, then there’s still a 10% chance of having 5 losers one after another and a 1% chance of suffering 10 consecutive beats.
The maths may be mind-numbing, but the lesson is clear. Even at a perfectly respectable hit rate, a smart horseplayer needs to make provision, both financially and psychologically, for dry spells. Professional bettors prefer to bet a small percentage of a big bankroll each time, ensuring that there is very little chance of them blowing their capital during the inevitable losing streaks when their handicapping methods, or the racing gods, desert them.
Everybody is different in the very personal act of betting. It depends on temperament – true gamblers love taking risks and shooting for big scores, whilst grinders are conservative in their approach, hate to lose and are happy to secure a modest return with safer investments.
Ashley Revell would fit into the gambler group, for sure. He sold all his worldly possessions and staked the whole lot (USD 135 000) on red in a roulette spin at a Vegas casino. When it came up red- seven, he used the winnings of USD 270 000 to establish his own online poker site.
In either group, you’ll find those that like to back a horse to win a specific amount, whilst others work out their edge based on probability and the available odds then adjust their stake accordingly. Many gamblers are not nearly so calculating, preferring, instead, to make bets based on their instinctive feel for the proposition, and the amounts of ready cash they can lay their hands on.
The Scottsville Sunday meeting proved hellish for punters. They lumped on to Enterthedebutante (22/10), Alfonso Spagoni (13/10), Awayinthewoods (12/10), Silver Rose (3/1), Buffalo Soldier (2/1) and Chantyman (18/10) then looked on as one market springer after another each found a way to get beat.
Mentally strong pro players resist going “on tilt” when this happens. As alluded to above, by only betting a sensible proportion of bankroll, they’ve automatically set a daily loss limit to protect themselves against too steep an erosion in their betting capital when hopelessly wrong on one dark day.
One of Cape Town’s most enduring horseplayers, aka C.L. the Sage, would offer wise counsel to novices – “This is a long game,” he would say. By that he meant that it takes persistence and a steady temperament to stay the course. In the short term the craziest things can, and often do, wreck any single bet, but a truly committed player measures his ability over more lengthy periods. If handicapping methods and money management principles are sound, then getting out of the red and into the black profit zone is an attainable long- term goal.