The 18/10 favourite, Seattle Skyline (s/s 95) won the Flamingo Park mile quite comfortably from Happy Pills (s/s 90) and Phil’s Power (s/s 89). Formerly from Durban, Seattle Skyline has taken readily to the red Kimberley dirt, winning three of four starts there whilst trained by Sarel von Willingh Smit.
The universal stat for favourites winning was generally accepted to be pegged at 33%, but evidence suggests that rate is climbing up to around 38% measured from huge samples of races globally. Perhaps, the sophistication of the racing public is increasing, benefitted by advanced technology and flow of pertinent, helpful information. Declining field sizes and obvious mismatches also make it easier to label the winner with some assurance.
Whether that applies at a low- level bush meetings where infirm horse battle it out and take turns in beating one another is debatable. Only two out of the nine races were won by the favourite on Saturday, as Kimberley remains one of the hardest venues for punters seeking high probability outcomes to proceed with any confidence.
Bright Flame (s/s 88) won the WSB Sprint virtually be default in a race where many invaders from other centres failed dismally to cope with the different surface. Multiple winners, Kissable, Basilius and Sugoi have all run figures close to 100 at their peaks, but none got anywhere near that on Saturday as Bright Flame kicked dirt down their throats, ambling in unmolested by six lengths.
In an aside, World Radar has attracted debate after being given an unprecedentedly huge official merit rating of 105 after winning a PE Maiden Juvenile on the 26th July. The problems with classical handicapping by weight and using beaten lengths at the finish as the absolute measure are highlighted in this weird case. Because of first timers dominating the finish, the fifth placed horse, Speechmaker, who tottered in 18 lengths back, was bizarrely deemed the line horse, and the resultant sky-high ratings plugged in for the others.
Much as I love crafting speed figures based on adjusted final times, I admit they too have their limitations as a methodology. But, most often they are a laser accurate way of determining thoroughbred merit. There were four sprints down the Fairview straight that day and after crunching the numbers I arrived at a very clear track variant of +10. Translated, that means well tried older campaigners Para Handy and Dame Commander, plus maiden winner Escape to Vegas earned plausible figures of 91,90 and 70 respectively.
World Radar (by Soft Falling Rain) thus managed a speed figure of 90 on debut which, whilst a fine effort for a smart young filly, is not nearly as good as the official handicappers believe. It will be interesting to see how her career progresses and which assessment proves more accurate.
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