Sometimes the betting market is easy to read with horses either shortening drastically or blowing like gales and drifting out. Occasionally though, punters have to interpret mixed signals as in the strange case of Shezashiningstar at Turffontein on the 27th September.
The Oratorio filly was backed ante-post from 10’s into 5’s then drifted right out to 16/1 at the death before prevailing narrowly over Cosmic Mist. Beaten favourite here was the winner’s stable mate, Ottawa who shortened from 15/10 into odds-on but could only finish in the ruck over three lengths back.
Punters ended up savouring a productive day, smashing a succession of winners including Royal Utopia and Forest Express, together with long shot, Kamakura (20’s into 8’s) in Race 7. Likewise, the Greyville meeting on the 30th was also a profitable one for most backers – Red Chesnut Road, Kopenhagen, Perfect Peter and the classy Matador Man received spirited action before winning.
We all know from harsh experience that there are no sure thing’s in racing. Instead, this is a game of probabilities, so inevitably there are bad misses, too. Awayinthewoods, (16/10 – 8/10) backed like there was no tomorrow, proved a costly fail in the first race.
A few well primed players found Silent Crusade as an alternative with an outside squeak. Mark Dixon’s firster attracted attention at 40/1, shortening into 20/1 and proved a length to good for the fave. Later, bookies got their best result when both the favourite Fort Carol and heavily backed Secret Dynasty (14/1 – 4/1) got run over in the final race.
Punters duffed a couple at Durbanville, too. Nao Faz Mal (2/1 – 12/10) is a Silvano youngster held in high regard and he was expected to shed his Maiden. The first three favourites had all obliged at the country course, but those thinking this is an easy game were humbled as 75/1 bomb, Brandenburg went start to finish. Nao Faz Mal was given every chance to get past yet was unable to do so – the stable response from Bass Racing was to geld the miscreant a few days later.
Margrethe was another money burner, shortening from 9/2 into 18/10. She ran third, which was actually quite a game try given that she jumped from the outside gate – a serious hindrance around the Durbanville turns, especially when trying to come from off them on a fast track.
Reading the betting exchanges is an art. Black Sail was backed on the Friday to win Race 8 at Turffontein and he anchored many multiple and exotic combinations. Yet, close to race time there was sustained support for the Pomodoro debutant, Shukra (14’s to 5’s) with Black Sail drifting out to 11/10. That late money proved spot on – Shukra duly scored with Black Sail one-pacing it on the rail into third.
A similar scenario unfolded at Greyville. The modest Elusive Diva (merit rating of 63) received surprisingly strong support, after relocating from Cape Town to Durban, as the masses bankered her in Pick 6’s, plus she was a common denominator for many multiples. The second most traded horse after the favourite was the aptly named, Red Herring. Canny punters who backed her from 33/1 down to 20/1 were counting their riches afterwards. The tardy favourite beat one horse home.
More intriguing moves unfolded at Greyville on the 26th September. Walterthepenniless had twice run close- up places, prompting form followers to side with him over the untried Ultra Magnus in Race 2. It turned out they should have accorded Ultra Magnus more respect as that one blew them all away to justify a stream of confident bets that halved his price from 4/1.
Yogas Govender’s supporters enjoyed a wide margin win with Dirty Harry on the Greyville Poly over 1900m. We seldom see such runaways on the lawn – the typical nature of turf racing where horses are conserved early for a furious late rally often sees tight, clustered finishes, though when the going is like a bog and the early pace is testing, the order of finish can be strung out.
Generally, the deeper surfaces of real dirt, and to a lesser extent, Poly makes that form of racing somewhat different to racing on the weeds, particularly when those early fractions are torrid. Punters who had lumped on to Dirty Harry (5/2 – 16/10) could relish a stress-free final furlong. Govender’s charge was way clear of a toiling, Lucius Fox who finished second in a different time zone, 8.50 lengths back.