Horseplayers can only profit if they make accurate calls about what will happen in future – betting is, after all, an exercise in making predictions. To help form sharp opinions, punters look back at recent past performances trying to uncover something which may prove of value in future. October month, where races were split between Durbanville and Kenilworth, yielded several potentially significant outcomes.
To kickstart proceedings, multiple Group 1 heroine, Captain’s Ransom flashed her customary closing burst to win the G3 Diana Stakes at the country course. This high-class filly, trained by Justin Snaith, has now won seven of nine starts, is devastating up to 1600m and will be a primary candidate for further G1 honours during the Cape Summer season.
Seeking the Stars (speed score 110) ran huge in the G3 Matchem Stakes. He is formidable over 1400m, an unusual/intermediate distance over which they are few big races. Stretched out to 1600m he is still very dangerous, just slightly vulnerable in the closing stages.
Vaughan Marshall trained stable- companion, Silver Operator ran a career peak number of 109 in second which brings him into the reckoning for summer features over 1600m. In fact, he races this Saturday in the Cape Mile where he will take on, amongst others, the July victor, Kommetdieding (s/s 112), Nexus (s/s 107), Rascallion (s/s 109) Sovereign Spirit (s/s 108) and Native Tongue (s/s 106).
In the Matchem, three-year-old, Cosmic Highway (s/s 105) put down an assertive Guineas marker. Trained by Dean Kannemeyer, who has an excellent record in the Classic, this son of Gimmethegreenlight showed himself up to the standard required to compete with the best of his generation.
At the next meeting, Kannemeyer stepped out Waterberry Lane, a colt he holds in high esteem. The Soft Falling Rain colt attained a score of 99 + which places him right on the cusp of what usually is needed for a genuine contender to meet the Guineas standard. He runs on Saturday in a Handicap against smart older horses such as Hyde Park and Gainsford, and it will be revealing to see how the three-year-old fares.
Racegoers were treated to a powerhouse sprint effort by Real Gone Kid when racing switched to Kenilworth in mid-month. He improved on his previous best of 103 attained back in February, toying with Pinnacle Stakes opposition, and scoring 106 + which suggests that the now strengthened, Australian-bred son of Snitzel is plenty good enough to contend for Graded honours in races for speedballs, such as the Cape Flying Championship.
The G3 Cape Classic won by Trip of Fortune (s/s 100 ++) could also prove a key indicator. The potency of his finish suggests that he deserves a significant sectional upgrade and is, at this stage, arguably the best of the current three-year-olds, having already run 103 at his previous start when nowhere near fully wound up. Candice Bass also trains the third placed finisher, Xavion (speed score 98) who competed with distinction at only his third racetrack appearance.
Brett Crawford will be excited with the progress being made by his charge, Zapatillas (s/s 99 +). This Master of My Fate colt has tussled gamely with subsequent Algoa Cup victor, Hoedspruit and also only went down narrowly to Trip of Fortune in the Cape Classic after doing it the hard way. Another to take out of the same key race is Snaith- trained, Double Superlative (s/s 96 ++) who looms as a potential Cape Derby horse after coming on from dead last over the too-short 1400m journey.
It’s not only in the colts’’ division that Candice Bass has some outstanding prospects – she also trains top notch fillies Amanzimtoti (s/s 104) and Dancetildaylight (s/s 101). The former won the G2 Western Cape Fillies Championships in stylish fashion over another eye-catcher, Chansonette (Andre Nel) and is teed up for the Cape Fillies Guineas.
It never pays to be parochial though and objective analysis should trump sentiment when putting hard-earned cash at risk. For example, lurking in the wings is Mike de Kock’s Highveld invader Desert Miracle (s/s 103 ++) who could prove to be the best around based on her commanding performances up- country. She’s been winning feature races such as the Graham Beck Stakes for fun, by steeplechase margins.
The locals won’t go down without a fight, though. Dancetildaylight is hard to assess as that figure of 101 was achieved under duress when caught wide from draw 18 then lugging in down the stretch. The fact that she got as close as she did to Fifty Fiver in the CTS de Grendel RTR contest despite all that went wrong, marks her as a fine filly with excellent acceleration, but whether she can stay with Desert Miracle in a Fillies Guineas showdown remains to be seen.
Gimmie a Star and Thefutureisbright fought out a minor league midweek contest towards month end without much fanfare. However, it was a strong performance measured against adjusted final and sectional times and it appears that both have bright futures. They are in good hands (Kannemeyer and Snaith respectively) and as lightly raced, unexposed youngsters have the potential to make dramatic progress, so are worth keeping on side over the next few months.