Favourite backers got on a profitable roll this past week with a succession of well-supported faves arriving safely, which got me mulling over the whole notion of “streaks.” All confirmed gamblers are familiar with them, savouring those spells when they can seemingly do no wrong and betting accounts get bumped up nicely with a sequence of positive results. Conversely, losing runs are wretched and debilitating – punters feel the racing gods have deserted them with bets crashing one after the other.
Non-gamblers would scoff at this, saying that all the events we bet on are totally independent of one another, and any talk of “streaks” is crazy. What happens in Race 4 at Turffontein in no way relates to the outcome of Race 7 later on the card, nor has any bearing on the result at another venue. A soccer bet struck in the Premiership has zero connection with another wager taken that same day in a different sporting code, such as the US Open tennis. Taken literally, these “streak sceptics” are absolutely right, and punters make an error of fact overstating any spurious links between the bets they make on completely separate events.
Yet, to true gamblers it feels as if the events are connected. When on downers, they feel fated to lose, when winning they feel omniscient. Something else is mysteriously at play here – it could be the state of mind which is influencing the quality of decisions they make, which in turn has a reinforcing and perpetuating effect, for better or for worse.
Chasing losses with indiscriminate bets, or “going on tilt” as the poker players say, would be an extreme example of making a bad situation worse by behaving foolishly. There are inherent psychological stresses to betting heavily, and tough beats over an extended period can wreck the equilibrium of an emotionally unstable horseplayer.
Betting is a very personal thing and there is no absolutely right or wrong way to approach it. In general, though, savvy professional bettors recognise the impermanence of success, so put a number of safe-guard measures in place to protect themselves against a serious draw-down in their betting capital.
They might typically wager a small percentage of bankroll according to their personally calculated edge in any given betting situation. They usually also set a daily or monthly limit of what they’re prepared to lose, then stick within those constraints. And, when things are not working out due either to their own misinterpretation of form, or factors beyond their control, they would calmly scale back wagers to reduce the damage till they sense better opportunities.
Smart pros understand that tough losses are part of the game that can endure for an uncomfortably long time. Importantly, they will also do some self- examination to test if the slump is due to their own mistakes, rather than automatically blaming their ill-fortune on external forces. Bettors should check their chosen handicapping methods regularly and make sure they’re working as proficiently as possible. Pros always recognise the need to confront their own negative emotions, whilst also setting in place sensible money management parameters to control against self- destructive irrationality.
When calling things accurately, the pros are sure to capitalise fully. They will emphasize the handicapping techniques that work best for them and stick to a core principle of betting according to their edge at an appropriate percentage of shifting betting capital. This means that as the bankroll increases during the good times, they will effectively be betting more. They will strive to bet assertively without ever becoming brash and over-confident.
Interbet punters who did just that by honing in on the right ones, then betting purposefully, would have been rewarded. 15/10 favourites Pippielangkous and Rip It Up both did the business at Kenilworth on Saturday, then on Sunday it was the turn of White Lightning (Anton Marcus riding) and Perfect Air to land the odds in Durban.
Marcus’ early season stats reflect his enduring high standards. They read; 41 mounts, 14 wins, 7 seconds and 6 thirds. This outstanding hoop is winning more than one in three races and can be relied upon to place in the top three in two of three races. A brave and utterly dedicated professional for decades, hit rates like these make Marcus the punters’ friend.
New trainer, Ashley Fortune has only been at it for a short while, yet also sports an excellent strike percentage. Together with the canny Andrew Fortune, this duo has really been sending it on the Highveld. 51 runners, 10 wins and 7 seconds and 6 thirds represent a fine return to date.
Their work with Mount Keith has been particularly impressive. Picked up as a seemingly stagnant, one- time winner with a merit rating of 63 at a dispersal sale in March, he’s since run six times for three wins and three places. Punted at 2/1 with “Striker” Strydom aboard in an MR 74 handicap, Mount Keith fought off Seventh of June to score. Noble Secret (9/20) and Deerupt (13/10) were other hot-pots to punish bookies on the day.