All punters have to consider the “Anton Marcus factor.” He’s been such a dominant force as one of South Africa’s very best jockeys over the years and has a big influence on fixed price odds and tote dividends. Over the last five years his winning percentage to mounts reads; 27%, 25%, 25%, 27% and 31%. Very impressive!
Sunday at Scottsville shaped up as another Marcus benefit day, though Diamondsandpearls, backed from 5/2 into 15/10 was unsighted in the opener. But, “Superman” soon rectified that miss and got on yet another winning roll to the delight of horseplayers who regularly profit from taking this highly professional jock in multiple combinations.
Socrates justified brisk trade in Race 4, Cat’s Legacy won Race 5 by a pole, then Tribal Fusion switched around horses to win the sixth going away. Finally, Caliente (11/10) who was the most heavily traded on the day, (as all the multiples ended on it in Race 8) got the job done. When Marcus saluted on that one at cumulative odds of 90/1, battered bookies reached for the tranquilisers.
Information overload is something we all have to deal with in this high- tech era, and racing is no exception with a huge body of statistics constantly being generated. Computer programmers running decision models based on clever algorithms can process data elegantly, yet the majority of punters handicapping manually can be overwhelmed by the surfeit of stats.
Joe Cardello, a studious horseracing analyst and baseball historian, provides sensible guidance to help us put it all into perspective. He writes in the book, Speed to Spare, “Racing stats generally reside in the 6% – 19% range. The few trainers or jockeys who win more than 20% of the time stand out high above the rest. Those who win less than 5% will have a tough time surviving. My advice would be ignore all stats that inhabit that overpopulated 6%-19% range. Only if any handicapping angle wins 5% or less, or 20% and more, would I factor it into my handicapping. For practical horse-playing purposes there is no difference between a trainer or sire or anything else that wins 12% and another at 17%. Stick with the useful extremes – they might be suggestive of something valuable.” Outstanding race-rider, Anton Marcus certainly fits into the “useful extreme” category!
Bookmakers did, however, receive a few reprieves during this past week. Big Sail (10’s into 28/10 and Jonathan (5’s down to 13/10) flopped at the Vaal on the 13th. Then, on Saturday at Turffontein, odds-on fave, Forest Express who was part of numerous multiples and a banker for many in Pick 6’s, tottered in a tame third four lengths behind front-running Royal Utopia. Another heavily traded favourite, Rising Legend met the same fate when third, albeit by a tighter margin just a neck behind Come the Day in Race 5. Punters made another donation in the nightcap when Dan the Lad, backed from 8/1 into 3/1 favourite, failed to find a place in a contest won by Pietro Mascagni.
In Cape Town other punting fails included, Dancing for Rain (9/2 – 22/10) – she tried hard but could not pass Cohiba all Day who went all the way in the Durbanville opener, whilst recent Maiden winner, Pippielangkous received plenty of action in Race 6 but got cut into and finished well beaten.
Crafty Interbet punters struck back with Capoeira in Cape Race 3 where odds on favourite Herodotus looked the business. Trained by the hot barn of Andre Nel, Capoeira had finished mid pack on debut and was eligible to improve trying further with the benefit of experience gained from that first educational start.
Still, it took quite a leap of faith to expect the son of Oratorio to actually win, but at 33/1 mistakes can be made without too much damage being done. Speculation from imaginative long-shot punters ensured he was the second most traded horse after the obvious favourite. In the race itself, Capoeira quickened best, after gentle early fractions, to outsprint Herodotus and return a starting price of 16/1.
Highveld hits that connected were Rockstar Child (7’s – 7/2) and Virginia (evens into 4/10) at the Vaal midweek meeting. Over the weekend, Desert Rhythm (7’s – 5’s) and Penny from Heaven (4/1 – 5/2) were the “wise-guy” horses at Turffontein. They both duly arrived, with the former defeating Race 3 odds on favourite Vivir, and Penny from Heaven scampering home to land a sharp strike in Race 6.