Punters were deadly accurate in the big events over the past weekend. Undercover Agent, Yakeen and African Night Sky were heavily traded before winning their respective races.
Undercover Agent is yet another Grade 1 success story for late-lamented sire, Captain Al. By scoring in the Gold Challenge he added to trainer Brett Crawford’s excellent record in important Stakes. Undercover Agent was the most traded on Interbet with 4/1 readily available, and he fought off the persistent threat of boom filly, Snowdance.
She was the firm top choice at 13/10. Historically, favourites win one out of three races, yet punters blindly backing favourites will lose 10-15 cents for each rand wagered. That’s a universal, confirmed, long term stat. The only way round such damming data is by striving to be a selective, smart handicapper able to distinguish between genuine stand-out favourites, and those with chinks in their armour.
Cagy punters are always looking for an edge at the odds, and then let price dictate the bet. “Overlays” are attractive propositions, being those horses quoted at generous prices bigger than their true chances. On the contrary, “underlays” should be avoided at all costs as their odds are unappetisingly low relative to their projected chances of success.
Problem is, though, this is not an exact science. Precisely calibrating whether a flesh and blood creature has a 25% or 33% probability of winning in a cavalry charge on any given day, is tough to call.
All betting markets are fluid and, at their core, simply represent the shifting views of gamblers holding varying opinions. And, the differential between actual market prices and “true” odds arrived at using powerful, predictive handicapping metrics can be very slim, after all. That means things get tricky when wagering on thoroughbreds for profit, perhaps prompting crusty actor and gambler WC Fields’ cynical comment, “Horse sense is something a horse has that prevents him from betting on people.”
Truly committed punters are undeterred by such cautions. African Night Sky was one of those “obvious” winners that, occasionally, make this seem an easy game. He was a banker for all and featured prominently in many of the multiple bets struck on Interbet.
His best attribute is a sharp turn of foot, an enviable characteristic for any turf campaigner and especially useful at Greyville. He turned on the after-burners at the entrance to the straight to blast past the whole field in the Grade 3 Cup Trial. This commanding display entrenched his position on top of the boards for the Durban July.
African Night Sky is currently trading at 22/10 followed by Do It Again (15/2) and Majestic Mambo (19/2) with Elusive Silva and Made to Conquer at 14’s. Remarkably, all, bar Majestic Mambo, hail from the Justin Snaith stable. If the market is to be believed, Snaith seemingly has a stranglehold on this years’ July.
Punters also got it right in the Jubilee Handicap at Turffontein. Early money for Tilbury Fort was surpassed by heavy betting action on Yakeen. They fought out a pitched battle with Yakeen squeaking home by a snout. The winning son of Teofilio has been quite lightly campaigned since debuting in October last year, but is now ready for serious action and making rapid progress. This most recent effort was a career –best, and the three year-old will keep on developing in the expert care of trainer Mike de Kock. Yakeen is currently around 25/1 in the Interbet ante-post July market.