“The trend is your friend” is an adage used by stock –market investors who base their investment decisions on “following the money.” A similar approach can be used by horse-players tracking shifts in the betting odds and trading volumes. Obviously, there is a lot more to in-depth handicapping before arriving at studiously researched form picks with a strong probability of winning, but simply checking out the market action can help reveal heavily backed horse’s primed for a huge run.
Though the strict rules of racing literally require that all thoroughbreds are given every chance of doing their best each time they race, “giving horses a run” to bring them to full fitness or when aiming at a future target, is part of the game. Punters need to interpret all available data from the past performances to decide whether a horse is going to stay at the same level, improve or regress.
Perhaps, what the betting market really is best at, is measuring “intent” – a vital motive in any endeavour. American bettors have a wonderfully apt phrase, saying that a horse is “well meant” when sent out trying hard to win, which will then be reflected in lowered odds.
On Saturday at Scottsville, Bold Respect and Waywood were hot horses that attracted serious action, and duly won. Bold Respect is a power-sprinter that was tried over further when younger, but is best forcing a strong pace over 1200m. Brett Crawford, together with Peter Muscutt, run an excellent training operation, and are especially adept at targeting big races then getting peak showings out of their runners when it counts.
Waywood is trained by Shane Humby, an unobtrusive yet highly skilled horseman who prefers to operate beneath the radar. Now based in Durban, he has a small yard and sends our few runners. But, when his horses are cranked up and ready for action in the right class of race – pay attention, as they don’t miss too often!
Loud and sustained applause for the inspired punter who invested R2800 in a Pick Six perm to take down a R3.37 million bonanza using three bankers (including Waywood in the last leg) and three fields. The starting price treble of Mighty High (11/1), Bold Respect (6/1) and Waywood (5/1) worked out at 503/1 so investing the same outlay in that multiple would have returned R1.4 million.
He got fortunate with upsets in races where he’d covered all the runners, which turbo-charged his return by a cool two million bucks. Very well played, sir in an extreme illustration of an exotic betting truism – be right when playing short, and get lucky when playing wide!
Other heavily backed horses to get the job done over the weekend included Rock of Asia, Rainbow Bridge, Call To Account and Fresnaye at Kenilworth. Punters were also smiling after Redberry Lane corrected a string of five seconds in an eventual victory at Turffontein on Sunday.
It’s not always a “put and take job,” though, and attempted coups and betting plunges get thwarted, too. That’s the nature of this compelling game. Magical Wonderland, Vodka Lime, Arabian Air and Big Myth are recent examples of well traded losers based on trading volumes shown on Interbet’s exchange site.
In the SA Fillies Sprint, Magical Wonderland was game in defeat behind Sommerlied, who remains a perfect four from four at Scottsville; Vodka Lime made a bold mid- race move only to be caught out on the wrong side of a soft straight course at Kenilworth, then Arabian Air was reportedly was not striding properly when running below best. Big Myth was toppled by a Chris Erasmus trained Maiden “spook” with a feeble merit rating of 59. His unconsidered, long-shot, Until Dawn was having her 26th start and drawn on the wide outside around the turn. Nobody said this is an easy game!