This cryptic sequence of descending numbers, 33 – 21 – 15 – 11 – 8 came out of a study done years ago by Barry Meadow, a successful pro gambler and author of handicapping books. What do these figures signify? Well, they’re the winning percentages of public choices across a huge sample of horse races, from the top choice down to the fifth in the ordinal betting rank.
According to this research, the public favourite wins 33% of the time, one of the top two choices has a 54 % chance of scoring and one of the first four accounts for the winner 80% of the time. Nobody is pretending that this game is straightforward, yet these stats indicate that horse racing is actually quite predictable, and the crowd in general is wise enough to distinguish with real accuracy between its first, second, third choices and so on down to the virtual no hopers.
This could be a big selling point that racing marketers might emphasize. Far from being a mugs game that doom participants to certain losses, horseplayers have a legitimate shake at making a go of things – if they handicap studiously, understand the probabilities and bet wisely when they have an edge. There are no easy pickings nor promises of certain riches in one of the toughest betting games around, (made even harder by the mandated high tax take-out,) but the outcome of horse races is not as chaotic nor random as sometimes made out to be by sceptics.
Sharp bettors found many great wagering opportunities this past week. Robbie Sage and Muzi Yeni have been teaming up to good effect lately and they struck with Horseplay (10/1 – 11/2) at the Vaal on the 29th and Viscountess Vixen (14/1 – 8/1) over the weekend at Turffontein.
Owner/trainer St John Gray has also been working his string into fighting trim and alert punters who like to follow the money were duly rewarded. First timer’s Grindlewald and Peace Call Me were both backed at 25/1 into 6’s and arrived safe under work riders Vusunzi Sithetho and Joe Gwingwizha at the Vaal Classic meeting on the 31st. The heaviest hit of all was reserved for Race 7 when Mike de Kock’s Indy Ice broke a string of seconds and fifths to crack his Maiden, as the market confidently expected.
Punters can be prejudiced against older geldings, assuming these ‘pensioners” are past it and cannot be relied upon. If relatively sound to begin with and properly handled though, these old stagers can sustain quite consistent form. Seven years-old Fort Beluga gelding, Sea Urchin is a perfect illustration of this virtue and a credit to Garth Puller’s horsemanship. By scoring at Greyville on the 1st February, after being pounced upon at 7/1 and punted into 4’s, Sea Urchin was winning his fifth race in the past seven starts since July 2018.
A couple of misses at the Gauteng Guineas meeting this past Saturday (e.g. Tuscan Light, Satin Slipper, Hawwaam, Zouaves and Dhabyaan) may have clipped some punters’’ wings, but there were enough hits to sustain bankroll profits for shrewd bettors. Beautifully bred Miss Sabina (14/10 – evens) quickened up with alacrity to land the odds in Race 2; top weight and popular banker in the stayers race, Noble Secret (15/10 – 9/10) was delivered with fine timing by Bernard Fayd’’Herbe; Doosra (7/1 – 9/2) also made a race-winning move up the stand-side in the Wolf Power Stakes and Nafaayes (7/2 – 22/10) just lasted home in a hectic battle with Running Brave in the Fillies Guineas.
Gauteng Guineas victor, National Park found some early support at a generous ante-post price of 14/1 but the real money came in a few minutes before race time as he shortened to 6’s. Whilst bad things were happening to his poorly drawn main rivals like Hawwaam and Barahin, this high- class P.E. invader took advantage of a perfect pocket trip to win by nearly three lengths and reprise his Graham Beck Stakes romp at Turffontein in November last year.
Gold Lightning (5 starts), Cassius Colt (11 starts) and Elusive Diva (13 tries) are all money burners that have cost overly loyal punters who keep expecting them to exit the Maidens – surely they will win this time ? These sucker horses may look ready to score when repeatedly pitted against weak opposition, yet somehow find a way to get beat. It could be a physical limitation or lack of determination – most often a combination of those two factors prevent these horses from winning, except by a default. Horseplayers are asking for trouble when taking short prices about these beasts and would be better off in the long run either trying to find a better priced potential improver to beat the chronic loser or passing the race.
Savea, Siberian Husky and Wordbuster were the highest traded runners in KZN on the 30th January, then 1st and 3rd of February respectively. Savea failed to find the frame, but Wordbuster swept by to land the Greyville gamble.
Siberian Husky got beat on the Friday at 2/1, perhaps constrained by a niggly sacro-iliac joint and his lazy nature. Horses that have only managed a solitary victory from 17 starts are usually poor risks for the win at short prices. After receiving treatment to free his movement up as best as possible, Siberian Husky was bought back by diligent conditioner Peter Muscutt just five days later to win smoothly at Scottsville, after trading at can’t- get- hurt odds of 11/2.