Mark van Deventer
International champions, Winx and Arrogate experienced mixed fortunes in their weekend races. The Aussie mare blew the start yet produced an extraordinary turn of foot to win the Warwick Stakes for her 18th straight victory, but Arrogate duffed it when beat by stable mate Collected in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
Thoroughbreds that love to run, and have the ability to get a trip then accelerate sharply are a revelation. Perhaps that is the working definition of “class” – a combination of heart, staying power and speed. Winx’s closing fractions were exceptional. The Randwick track was admittedly as quick as a highway, but to run a 400m to finish time of around 21 seconds with 200m splits of 10.3 and 10.6 is awesome.
Arrogate, America’s leading all time earner after wins in the Travers, BC Classic, Pegasus and Dubai World Cup was capsized for the second time in a row. Listless when unsighted at 1/20 in the San Diego, he failed again, this time at 7/10, to get past Collected. Various theories have been advanced for these fails. The jockey reckons that Arrogate is not handling the surface. But, according to clocker and behavioural expert, Bruno de Julio, Arrogate is compromised in other ways. “Those earlier wins were monster efforts, and he is just not the same physically. He is now lighter behind, and weaker in his hindquarters.”
And Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s assessment ? ” He ran in spurts and is not back to where he was, but still showed some class and heart.” Always quick with a quip, he continued, ” They both came out of the race well and that’s important. I watched the race a few times and Collected still won!”
These examples illustrate the fundamentals of handicapping – the interplay between raw ability, the circumstancial influence of prevailing track conditions, together with the horses’ race-readiness or physical wellbeing. Add in that unfathomable element of “luck,” such as the misfortune which scuppered South African mare, Smart Call’s Grade 1 dip at Deauville, and we get a sense of the complexity of this great game.
Meanwhile in local action, Greek Fire (speed score 95) ambled in on debut at Turffies. Bought for 3 bar at CPYS ’16 he was most convincing so seems worth following. Other neat performances were delivered by Nicklaus (s/s 97) on the Greyville poly and the brave, New Caledonia at Kenilworth (s/s 92 +) who has twice recovered from career threatening suspensory injuries to run consistently well.