In a recent column, the notion of trading volumes being a useful predictor of results was covered. Yet again, it proved a most helpful aid in the quest for finding winners. On the 13th, 14th 15th, 17th and 18th November the highest traded horse of the day on Interbet came home smoking.
Ladder Man was the horse to attract the most action of all during the week under review. He got loose at the start, then jogged back towards the parade ring but at trainer Justin Snaith’s insistence was sent back to take his place. Under a pace-pressing and forceful ride, the son of Twice Over justified support from 11/2 to 5/2.
Horseplay (5/1 – 18/10) did the business at the Vaal in Race 4 racing over a more suitable longer route. The Judpot gelding is trained by the very astute Robbie Sage. From feature races (Coral Fever) to handicaps (Goede Hoop), humble Maidens (Dunas Dourados) to Assessment Plates (William the Silent,) Sage currently has his string in fine fettle, recording seven wins from the last 30 saddled.
Another trainer that has been on a roll lately is Brett Crawford, who gets his charges super-fit in the deep sand tracks of Phillipi and uses a treadmill as an additional fitness aid. His entry Pacific Trader did not really enjoy the Greyville bends during Winter and is more comfortable galloping down the straight. Resuming back at home after the KZN campaign, his price of 10/1 was halved by the off and he proved too swift for rivals in the nightcap at Kenilworth.
Candy Galore punted from 7/2 into 5/2 won a midweek MR 68 handicap on the Poly at Greyville whilst Rebels Champ was yet another “highest traded of the day” to salute. The latter is an entertaining speedster to watch as he saves his energy for a late dart. These are high risks tactics to carry out in scurries decided by milli-seconds, yet Paul Peter’s runner has compiled a fine record winning six of 18 starts. Winning jock, Lyall Hewitson’s pace judgement was spot on in Sunday’s Scottsville score.
SA’s highest rated horse and champion miler, Legal Eagle (11/2 – 7/2) caused a stir when getting up to win a Pinnacle Peak in a late- night 1160m dash at Turffontein. “Pace makes the race” is a racing truism- Pinnacle Peak and Clever Guy set off at a torrid early clip but caved in late, enabling Legal Eagle to come from far behind and nail them. This equine star can turn it on whenever asked by master jock, Anton Marcus, and has won 14 of 25 starts over distances between 1160 and 2450m, though is probably at his absolute best over 1600m.
So much for all the punting successes. Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Arcaro said, ‘Any horse can get beat on any day,” which neatly summarises that there are no certainties in racing. Costly flops included Green Plains and Toastmaster up on the Highveld, with Pleasedtomeetyou, Temple Grafin and What A Thrill biting the dust at coastal venues.
Odds on favourite, Green Plains got caught up in a speed duel with Wrecking Ball and they both succumbed to Rose in Bloom’s more telling finish. What a Thrill also started in the red and was widely expected to shed her Maiden – she was also a universal Pick Six banker for exotic bettors. Unfortunately for her supporters, she found one too good in Reactive Glaze, who had previously finished close to Ready to Run Cup victress, Vi Va Pi Pa.
Temple Grafin was another popular banker to duff it. She’d run an excellent second at her last start behind Fillies Guineas bound, Clouds Unfold and was heavily favoured. But hard as she tried, she could not reel in Nous Voila, who got away with soft early fractions and kept rolling to win over the Kenilworth 1200m. Like the earlier mentioned Pacific Trader, Nous Voila is one of those thoroughbreds that is more comfortable running straight. She has a crooked action, which accounted for two dull runs around the turn. Put back down the straight she showed her true ability again -in the process consigning many Pick 6 tickets to the litter bin!
Race 6 at Kenilworth was a lively betting event. Oh Susanna and Brave Move attracted most of the money as Lady in Black blew out to 9/1 at one point. Dennis Drier’s horses have travelled really well down to Cape Town and he continued his fine early season form when Lady in Black got first run and out-finished Oh Susanna. Both these high- quality fillies are bound to be principal contenders in Graded Stakes during the Summer.
Long shot winners offer a peculiar fascination. It’s easy to be wise after the event and offer a plausible analysis afterwards why they did well – the trick quite obviously is to predict beforehand that something wacky may happen.
So, full credit to supporters of Summer Olimpics (20’s) and Artemisa (50/1 – 18/1) who backed their contrarian vision. Perfect Air and Captain’s Choice were the hot horses in Summer Olimpic’s race, though the bottom weight in the handicap did receive quite a bit of outsider betting action before coming from last under capable apprentice Mbhele.
In Artemisia’s case, maybe it was the 1600m distance or the reduced merit rating that helped. Mulling over the past performances is useful up to a point – it’s what happens in the race itself that really matters, and the determining factor was a perfect ride from Hewitson. He apportioned her energy distribution expertly with some rivals going slightly too fast and others getting caught a touch too far back. Hewitson is an intelligent hoop and here he got the timing exactly right in a game decided on fine margins.
———————————–