Ante post betting holds a special intrigue. With the Summer Cup taking place tomorrow, punters who gazed into their crystal balls months ago, may be holding tickets that now represent exceptionally generous value. Betting any horse race requires the difficult skill of forecasting. Trying to do so well in advance without knowing whether your fancy will even make it into the race, nor what the prevailing conditions will be like on the day itself, is particularly challenging. But, getting it right can be most rewarding.
Barry Hills, one of Britain’s most successful trainers (since retired) launched his career with a monumental ante-post strike. Employed as a humble stable hand, he was left in charge for a while when his boss left on an extended holiday. Entrusted in his care was Frankinscence, a long- range prospect for the Lincoln handicap. The lad sold all his possessions, plus those of his devoted wife and borrowed money from trusting friends. He then struck a series of heavy wagers in the ante post market, backing the horse from 66/1 down to 12/1. It romped home! When his boss, John Oxley returned from holiday, he resigned and opened his own training facility with the profits!
Interbet has been offering Summer Cup betting in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s showdown. It’s now 5/1 the field, an open market as one would expect for such a contentious race. Cascapedia (5/1), Tilbury Fort (currently 6/1 was 25/1), Takingthepeace (6/1), Noble Secret (7/1), then 10/1 shots Coral Fever (was 22/1 in early trade) and Secret Potion are the top five contenders.
Turffontein stages a twelve -race program including the G2 Merchants, G2 Ipi Tombe Challenge and G 3 Magnolia Handicap. Exotic pools beckon invitingly on such days. Check out the user-friendly Interbet Tote platform and dive into the estimated R45 million that is up for grabs.
Punters had a rollicking ride in the past week smashing some sharp winners, especially at the Sunday Greyville meeting where high percentage jockey Anton Marcus won on five out of six mounts. Kenilworth was also was the scene for favourite backers to collect – Alsflamingbeauty, Madonna, Front and Centre were popular winners on the 21st, then Kasimir, Cirillo and One World cleaned up in the weekend feature races when heavily supported.
Hawwaam, reportedly Mike de Kock’s best three year- old, scored most impressively in the Dingaans, at only his second career start. He traded as low as 5/2 at one point before drifting out to nearly 6’s in a volatile betting market. The favourite was East Cape ace, National Park, on the back of a startling victory in the Graham Beck Stakes three weeks prior. Whether the altitude got to him, or he found a hard run mile beyond this comfort range, National Park ran significantly below best, coming under pressure 300m out as Hawwaam swept past to comfortably beat a game Natal invader, Thanksgiving.
Divergent views are held regarding first timers. Many “school-of-hard-knocks” punters choose never to bet on any debutant, no matter how strong the hype may be, fearing that racing inexperience typically proves costly. Others like to bet well-tried firsters from sussed stables, knowing that they have galloped against and beaten stable mates that are lengths better than exposed opposition. The week under review brings an example that would have wizened punter shaking their heads earnestly – there was massive trade for debutant, Castle Gate at the Vaal on the 20th but the Trippi filly barely picked up her feet and finished way back.
This ‘experience versus talent” debate applies beyond the dilemma of what to do with first timers and extends to whenever horses are attempting something new, such as racing on a different surface, changing equipment or trying another distance. Consider this puzzle – if you were designing a decision model for ranking contenders in horse racing, would you place more value on raw talent or instead emphasize proven experience?
A compromise solution informs the old adage, which entertaining TV host for the New York Racing Association, Harvey Pack would espouse – “be wary of a favourite trying something new.” Pack had a colourful turn of phrase, and was fond of repeating this caution, ‘Hardly is now a man alive who paid the mortgage at 3-to-5.”
If you’re going to take short price, you’d better be pretty sure that your fancy has everything in its favour and will put forth it’s absolute best effort. At more generous odds you can take a chance and project improvement under the new circumstances.
Some big volume horses also got toppled. That same afternoon at the Vaal when Castle Gate got unhinged, Doosra was punted in to odds-on but could only clock in second behind the consistent Catkin. Montego Bay, was the most traded runner (12/1 – 6/1) at the following day’s meeting in the Cape, but he too met a similar fate when finishing second behind Hooves of Thunder.
Isle de France also let the side down. Shortening in the Fillies Mile from 8’s into 4’s with multiple wagers coming through after Hawwaam’s success, Mike de Kock’s charge was the most backed horse on Dingaan’s day. She is obviously not a straight-forward character as after an easy debut romp she’s now twice underperformed, most recently when equipped with a tongue tie.
Hartleyfive attracted serious support on the 22nd at the Vaal and was the highest traded horse on the day by a long way, only to get cooked by first timer, Miss Simpson who drew away for a fluent victory. There are no rules in racing and being too cocksure or dogmatic is seldom a good idea. A flexible and judicious approach that takes probability into account works best – sometimes backing first timers can be hazardous to your wealth, yet opposing ‘unknown quantities” can also be punitive, as Hartleyfive’s supporters found out to their cost.