The 2015/16 season has just been completed, generating a mass of performance –based statistics. Most of these stats don’t actually add to our body of knowledge – even the most dim-witted horseplayers can distinguish between the very best industry professionals and incompetent battlers, with the data just confirming the obvious. But a more subtle interpretation of the results can help punters make smart betting decisions and land profitable future wagers.
The majority of capable jockeys will win between 7% and 12% of races in which they have mounts. The better guys usually connect at a rate somewhat higher than that, though for practical purposes there is no meaningful distinction between a 13% strike rate and say, 17%. Only Anton Marcus and Anthony Delpech at 27% and 24% tower above the rest, which is hardly a revelation given their high-profiles, and the shorter market odds about their mounts chances reflect their reputations.
Most punters are leery of Work Riders events, yet Samuel Mosia has stats which compare favourably with “Superman and Bonji” – a rock-solid 25% wins from 60 tries, including a strike rate of 41% on favourites. So, instead of the usual “caution is advised” disclaimer for such contests, Work Rider races on the Highveld could be a slam- dunk for punters, especially given that Tshepiso Moagi also has a formidable hit rate of 26%, albeit from far fewer rides. This means that, between the pair, they are a highly predictable even money chance to win races that are otherwise difficult to fathom out.
Another potentially profitable angle is premised on a universally accepted fact, based on massive samples showing that favourites win slightly more than one in three races. Interestingly, it’s not the big names that fare significantly better than average in this category. Currently the most dependable riders in SA for bringing the faves home are Robert Khathi, Aldo Domeyer, Donavon Dillon and Lyle Hewitson, who reliably do so more than 40% of the time. That is helpful to know when searching for exotic bankers’ that the masses may overlook.
Industrial tycoon Paul Getty said, “My formula for success is rise early, work late and strike oil.” Diligent horseplayers also put in plenty of study then hope to get lucky – the “oil strike” could be a big quartet dividend. This popular bet generally attracts the largest single race pools despite being tough to hit. Predicting the first four finishes is a low probability call – in a 13 runner field there are 17 160 possible combinations.
Being guided by the stats and focussing on the mounts of champion S’Manga Khumalo, Delpech, Marcus, Grant van Niekerk, Piere Strydom, Gavin Lerena, Richard Fourie and Weichong Marwing would increase the likelihood of catching the bet. They have managed a higher than 50% top four stat from all of their starts last season, so could sensibly be used to anchor quartet perms.
A positive ratio between winners and second place finishes is a powerful way of measuring a jockey’s competitive worth. Peeking at the top of the rankings confirms this, with the seven best riders including Khumalo, Delpech, Andrew Fortune, Marcus, Muzi Yeni, van Niekerk and Domeyer all qualifying. Lerena, Hewitson and Strydom also meet the criteria. They are house-hold names so the wagering value may be limited, but the principle is still valid. Punters looking for their selection to enjoy a critical advantage in tight finishes can monitor the stat through the new season, then hone in on those jocks who achieve that positive ratio.
Punters typically focus on assets when making their picks, but liability-side handicapping is useful in eliminating horses from consideration and reducing the cost of exotic bets. Darwin’s evolutionary principle of survival can be applied to jockeys as well, ruthless as it may appear. Low-percentage jocks winning at less than a 5% rate are struggling to survive, and punters should demand major positives about the horse to compensate for the rider’s deficiency before including their mounts in any bet.
The jockey factor can sometimes be overplayed in handicapping and blindly betting on the top reins-men is misguided. A legendary South African jockey realistically confided that most of his colleagues in the jockey room are good enough at their jobs and would also be able to win if they were on board a clearly superior horse. Yet, searching for profitable angles amongst the seasonal jockey stats can be fun when making those fine-line distinctions between which entry to promote on your tote ticket, or who can safely be tossed out.