Finding long-shot winners is most gratifying and one of the best ways to suddenly push the betting ledger into the black. Difficult as they may be to pull off, there are a few examples of inspired long-shot plays that connected during the past week.
How Does it Taste (33/1 – 12/1) did the business for the in-form Candice Dawson stable in a strong betting race at Turffontein on the 6th October where money came for many horses.
The following day at Greyville, Rich Harvest (40/1 – 14/1) was another to oblige at a big price. In a moderate line up, the favourite Myrrh blew like a gale in the betting and money for Firefoot proved misplaced, which opened the way for Greg and Karen Anthony’s five year-old to score. The same stable also landed a sharp touch with Big King two days prior. There was heavy trade ante post and near race time for this horse (6/1 – 4/1) who proved best in a MR 72 handicap.
Other smaller barn getting amongst the winners include Harold Crawford and Greg Ennion. Crawford, at 30%, actually has one of the highest strike rates in the whole country at the moment and Dynamite Jack (25/1- 8/1) confirmed solid course form at Durbanville to add to his haul. Greg Ennion trains his compact string out of Milnerton and his outsider Line Editor (40/1 – 20/1) going a longer route for the first time, toppled the expected boat race between Metropolitan and Let me Love You over 2400m at the Durbanville 9th October meeting.
Whilst big outsiders are obviously great to unearth, in all likelihood they are only going to connect quite rarely, and finding medium priced overlays set to outrun their odds has a higher probability of success. Herodotus and Hemmingway were two examples of profitable middle pins at Durbanville on the 9th October.
The former got undone by a false pace at his previous start and was priced up generously due to a wide gate. Bad draws can be overcome though and jockey Munger made all the right moves to get Herodotus (6/1 – 7/2) up for the victory. Jockey Bernard Fayd’’ Herbe has properly sussed out the peculiar nuances of the fast Durbanville circuit and is currently riding like a man possessed – he dominated from the front on Hemmingway (5/1 – 33/10).
We covered the Anton Marcus factor a few weeks back and a telling stat about this outstanding jock (he had 20 rides over the weekend of which 17 were favourites) reveals the powerful effect he has on the market. Whenever a jockey dominates to such an extent, punters are constantly deciding whether to grind it out by supporting him at low prices on probable winners or play against him at inflated odds on more esoteric selections. A similar scenario applied in Hong Kong when Jaoa Moreira (nicknamed, Magic Man) ruled that jockey colony, and years ago in Northern California where Hall of Famer, Russell Baze was a controlling force.
The biggest bomb of the past week was Chere’s Joy who stunned them in Race 3 at Greyville after trading as high at 150/1 on Interbet at one point! The shock winner had finished last at her only previous start and was not considered likely to trouble the judge. Seek Moon Magic was heavily backed as multiples came forward onto it from the first race, whilst there was, predictably, also money for Anton Marcus’ Champagne Gold, and professional maiden, Roy’s Novice, having his 17th outing.
Horses often make the biggest improvement of their entire career at their second start, but Chere’s Joy’s wake-up was truly remarkable. The result was one of those head-shaking mysteries that confound ardent punters – this was a freakish race where bookies got the lotski!
Punters also suffered through a series of reversals at Turffontein on the 6th October. In Race 1, Jonathan again got rolled; Avantegarde and Kir flopped in the second; Two of Us (9/1 – 3/1) failed in Race 3 then Ghaalla (5’s – 28/10) and Soqrat (16/10 – 12/10) followed suit – whilst they both ran gamely neither could get the job done in Races 7 and 8 respectively.
Such rough days can be disheartening. Maybe there is some solace to be gained from Vince Lombardi’s “explanation” after his American football team got beat, “We didn’t lose the game. We just ran out of time.” Luckily, there is always a next time for devoted punters – so long as we keep on breathing! Coming up is an intriguing Turffontein card, laden with potential, for us to look forward to this weekend.