Long shots may reveal themselves as plausible contenders in wide open races where anything with a pulse has a chance. Other times, “shrewdies” may have a go against a short- priced favourite they deem vulnerable and take advantage of inflated prices about their fancy. Examples of both these betting scenarios played out this past week.
Cyber Law (25/1 into 12/1) was one of many with a shake in a contentious MR 68 handicap over 1400m at Durbanville and he rewarded backers when outduelling Meraki. Candice Bass Robinson bemoaned her charges lack of fight, saying Meraki “has the heart the size of a pea.” The winner (trained by Eric Sands and ridden by Liam Tarentaal) was game – coming back after being headed inside the final 50m.
Bulleting Home, at odds on, is an example of a vulnerable favourite. With only three runs this year after a lengthy break, a sceptic could pick holes in the ageing gelding’s physical credentials, who was also set to concede 14kg’s to light weight Sea Urchin (25/1 – 14/1). Canny punters found this one to beat Bulleting Home, who was part of the widely anticipated, Anton Marcus treble for the day.
A similar situation saw Schippers get hit at 20/1 in early trade to beat the sparingly- raced, yet talented, odds on favourite Pretty Penny, who was returning from another short rest. Punters are constantly weighing risk and reward. Pretty Penny had to run way below best to lose (which she did after suffering an epistaxis) and Schippers had to go faster than she done before, (which this young, improving filly managed with aplomb.)
The most heavily traded horse of all on Interbet over the last few days was Fortune Flies in the finale at Durbanville. Trainer Justin Snaith has gotten off to a typically fast start this season and was gunning for a four-timer on the Durbanville Tuesday card. A heavy settlement for bookies on accumulators built around Snaith multiples was averted when the filly trailed in a tame fifth. The winner here was Be Yourself, backed from 8’s into 33/10 and well handled by a rail-riding, Ryan Munger. Now stable jock to Glen Kotzen, Munger was relieved to crack No 1 box after a string of seconds.
The betting market can suddenly change in unexpected ways. Big Blue Marble opened very short odds on in Race 1 at the Vaal on September 6 and was expected to win without drawing a deep breath. Backing such “shorties” is not for the faint hearted, but he drifted out to 8/11 on strong support for Ultra Boost (4/1 – 2/1). With this market rival blowing the start and being green, Ashley Fortune’’ entry duly won with ease to set off an excellent day for the stable. Dalai’s Promise (4’s -17/10) and Proud Dynasty (5’s down to 5/2) did further damage to bookmakers’ accounts, though Pachanga getting outduelled by outsider Walnut Dash thwarted any multiple Yankee’s that might have been taken.
The van Zyl yard pulled off a neat strike with Perfect Peter in Race 2 at Scottsville early this month. Last raced on the 3rd December 2017, Perfect Peter won after being punted from 8/1 into 7/2.
Professional (10/1 – 4/1) did not get the job done, however. He was speculatively backed in the opener at Turffontein on Saturday, but Iditarod Trail, and indeed quite a few others, proved too good. The market steamer, making his debut, clocked in mid pack, seven lengths behind, exposing the hazards of wagering on inexperienced horses.
It’s a difficult thing to win first time out – using prominent examples from the U.S.A. even superstars like Secretariat and American Pharoah lost on debut at short prices. South African fans can think of countless examples of horses that turned into champions getting rolled on debut. Nevertheless, it can be tough to resist a hot tip about a highly rated horse from an astute barn. Maybe price should dictate the bet here – at a generous overlay quote a spec bet is reasonable approach but piling in at short prices on debutants, no matter how big their reputation, can be hazardous to your wealth.
“Pace makes the race,” is a valid racing adage. To illustrate, Vascostreettractor (15/10 – 12/10) was anchored in many a Pick 6 perm as well as in multiple bets at Durbanville on Saturday. He’d run forwardly behind Bunker Hunt on debut and looked teed up to win. Brett Crawford’s entry was positively ridden to overcome a wide draw but got caught up in an enervating pace duel. Even though still well clear with 200m to go and running his heart out, that early pace pressure took its toll and he understandably could not resist the late running Carlos Mambo’s precisely-timed challenge in deep stretch.