It may be sacrilege to pick holes in the form of an outstanding filly that has won 9 out of her 11 starts, (including Multiple G1’s) just as the brilliant defending champ of the Schweppes Majorca Stakes, Captain’s Ransom (speed figure 110) has done. Yet she hasn’t quite been at the peak of her powers lately, is awkwardly drawn on the wide outside (10) and is a short- priced favourite at 9/10, so it may pay value-seekers to look elsewhere.
Only two of Saturday rivals, Zarina and Princess Calla have ever finished ahead of Justin Snaith’s, mighty Captain’s Ransom. That was in the G1 Garden Province Stakes over 1600m when the off-colour, poorly drawn daughter of Captain Al caved in late to be unplaced. Zarina benefitted from a perfect set-up, quickening off the exceedingly strong early pace to nail Princess Calla on the line.
Zarina has won exactly half off her 12 starts, possesses an excellent turn of foot and is ideally suited by a true run 1600m. She is primed to run up to her best form at this her third run after a break. Aldo Domeyer rides for Candice Bass Robinson, and if Zarina can improve on her best score of 108 then she can conceivably win another Grade 1. She was trading at around 7/1 during the week and will have each way supporters at those odds or better.
Princess Calla (s/s 108) typically finishes within about a length or two of Captain’s Ransom. That was her fate in the Cape Fillies Guineas in December 2020, the SA Fillies Guineas in May 2021, a Pinnacle Stakes in December and in a false run G1 Paddock Stakes three weeks ago. She would need her nemesis to run below par and in turn requires a career best to turn the tables. Given that these margins of defeat have been getting closer, she does not face an insurmountable deficit to overcome.
She’s a Keeper got on a roll in Durban during 2021, winning five times between 1200m and 2000m. Her best speed figure to date is 105. She has twice come up slightly short in her Cape Summer campaign and looks held by the three fillies mentioned, though she has a definite place chance with jockey Bernard Fayd’ Herbe likely to work out a smooth commute from draw 3.
Three-year-old, Chansonette looms a bigger menace. This 7/2 second favourite has run improving figures of 100 +, then 104 in her remarkable Cape Fillies Guineas defeat of Desert Miracle, before getting beaten a lip by Captain’s Ransom in the Paddock Stakes. 1800m is probably at the outer limit of her stamina range, as it is for Captain’s Ransom, and this daughter of Vercingetorix is a huge runner coming back to a mile. Andre Nel runs a highly professional operation amidst the fynbos and dunes of Rondeberg Nature Reserve up the West Coast, and in Grant van Niekerk, Chansonette will have one of the most flamboyant, confidence- riders around to guide her.
It’s a stretch to envisage the winner coming outside this group of five. On her fine Fillies Guineas fourth, Mercury Rising (s/s 102) may sneak a minor share, as may Snaith Racing stable mate, Major Attraction (s/s 101) so trifecta/quartet players can add them to the lower slots. Eight-time winner, Santa Therese (s/s 100) has been cleaning up in Port Elizabeth for Alan Greeff but was four lengths adrift of the principals in the Paddock Stakes which sums up her spot in the pecking order.
That leaves two handy runners who could be pace factors but seem most unlikely to be around at the finish, and accordingly are 50/1 outsiders. Pretty Betty (s/s 99) thrived in the boggy winter going using forcing tactics. Her firm-track runs have been way below that level and breathing noises at her last two starts are a further deterrent. Kailene (s/s 96) did well as a juvenile last term in Durban versus much weaker fields. She has not troubled the scorer in two recent G1’s and looks outpointed.
Whilst some Pick Six and Jackpot players who have successfully bankered Captain’s Ransom in the past will be inclined to remain loyal and do the same again to save costs, it may be advisable to add Princess Calla, Zarina and Chansonette to tickets and try lock up the leg by going four-deep. With the P6 pool expected to reach R10 million, these strategic decisions take on some significance!
The suggestion for fixed odds bettors in Race 8 would be to side with the consistently classy, Princess Calla on each way terms. She’s repeatedly proven herself talented enough to be right in this fray and seems sure to run big for trainer Adam and jockey, Anton Marcus. Princess Calla was fairly quoted at 6/1 to win and 8/10 a place in ante post trade.