Complex problem solving is what handicapping is all about. Take this recent race for proven sprinters:
If you’d bet on the horse with the best last start speed figure, you’d have lost because the horse is being prepped for an upcoming target and duly ran below best.
If you’d picked the most consistent horse, a strong favourite albeit with slightly inferior figures and a hard task at the weights, you’d also have made a donation as he could only manage a well-beaten second.
If you’d gone for either of two horses with highly competitive back figures but who had not won for ages with histories of unsoundness, you’d be poorer as neither picked up their sore feet.
If you’d gone for a light weight with seemingly weaker speed figures yet having scope to improve and primed to run a career peak, you’d be celebrating.
The race in question was staged on Saturday at Turffontein and won by Bohica, who boosted his speed score from 99 to 104. Full credit to Dave Mollett for a spot- on preview in Business Day where the Azzie stable revealed their confidence in the son of Cape Town Noir’s chances. That positivity was reflected in the betting market as Bohica was heavily punted from 5/1 into 2/1 before easily taking care of Mr Flood.
This example conveys just how dynamic punting can be as horseplayers must try synthesise a wide range of confounding variables before making betting decisions. To render this Racing “Brain Game” popular again, and a viable wagering pursuit for intelligent investors into the future, customers must be given a surfeit of information. Transparency is key! And complete integrity in racing itself is absolutely vital, too!
The Restructuring Task Team is faced with tough business decisions within the next week which will determine the path chosen by SA racing. This humble psychology graduate is out of his depth debating high level corporate wheeling and dealing. What is obvious, however, to anyone with even a tiny dose of marketing suss is this – whoever ends up operating racing in SA, must meet the needs of punters if the game is to prove sustainable.
To quote Bennet Liebman, a staunch NYRA Board member and wise advisor to New York Governors, “What we want in a franchise holder is what is best for the fans of horse racing. That means the best quality racing at the best price, at the best facilities, and with an assurance of fairness in the racing.… it’s the one sport where the fans through their wagering dollars are true participants in the game. If we aren’t working for the fans of racing…. we’re not working at all.”
There is no coordinated SA horseplayer advocacy group to represent punters interests here. It’s hoped that proper marketing studies are being done into what punters actually want in SA, but some of their wishes would likely mirror those of fellow bettors around the world. Here are a few suggestions/pleas to the authorities:
Reduce Take- Out: this is a political hot-potato especially in a fraught SA context, but an extortionate 25% exotic take out makes a tough game practically impossible to beat even for sophisticated Tote bettors. No wonder sensible players migrate to fixed odds betting at a significantly lower tax. Even worse is when bettors leave the game all-together due to creeping losses or take Open Bets to try maintain profitability. Lower taxes, combined with a fair and judicious use of rebates based on volumes bet, would boost turnover with winning players increasing their bets and losing players lasting longer. Give payoff bonuses to attract on course attendance.
The industry should run ongoing Educational Programs for fans: racing is difficult to master with a steep learning curve that deters people out for a quick gaming fix. Use the specialist racing channels and on- line resources to run fan-friendly programs where experts pass on their knowledge about racing’s fascinating gambling intricacies.
Celebrate Winners: By turning sharp Poker pros into minor TV celebrities, interest in that card game grew big time. Nobody is saying racing is easy and indeed the vast majority of players will lose. However, portraying it as a mugs game for idiotic gambling junkies is counter- productive. To illustrate, Golf is also difficult to play well with only 1% of players possessing handicaps of 3 or less but that does not mean less capable recreational players should pack away their clubs. By showcasing the best PGA or European Tour Players, recreational hackers are inspired, and participation in Golf is widened. Racing can do the same by promoting the skillfull accomplishments of consistently successful betting pros.
Provide accurate Work Out information, videos of training gallops/trials and supply data on horse’s shifting weights: the available form guides have improved significantly over the years but a void that needs to be filled is providing open info about the shifting physical condition of racehorses. Trainers opinions, no matter how well intentioned, are not sufficient – real objective work out data is required.
Sectional Timing is essential: get systems in place which enable punters to know precisely how fast horses are going at different stages of the race. Athletics, Motor-Racing, Downhill slalom skiing – you name any type of sport that literally involves “racing” – split second timing is integral to understanding that sport. Without such core data in horse racing, the product is debased and form study is reduced to guesswork.
Stride Length data can help as well: this is a relatively new field measuring strides and cadence (frequency). Certain top trainers use it to understand ability and distance preferences – provide that info to customers, preferably for free. Thankfully, there are plenty of freely available resources, yet punters are already paying heavily for the privilege of betting via mandated taxes, so why should they also have to pay extra for helpful info on which they base their decisions?
There are many other solutions that can help improve the lot of horseplayers and by extension, ensure the sustainability of racing in SA. The range of online betting options and ease of watching races @ home from all across the globe is one of the great modern advances for racing enthusiasts. As a pioneer in on- line exchange betting and live streaming, Interbet has been at the forefront of some of these positive shifts in South Africa.
Feel welcome to contact the Interbet Team with any bright suggestions and where possible, we can try tweak things so that your gambling endeavours’ are more fun and rewarding!